WTA Madrid has produced some phenomenal matches over the last week. The 96-person draw has dwindled to eight as some of the best WTA players in the world duke it out for this 1000-level title. Tuesday in Madrid features two quarterfinal matches, including No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek taking on Brazilian Beatriz Haddad Maia. As always, we at LWOT have a preview and prediction for all happenings around the Mutua Madrid Open. But who will advance to the semis?
WTA Madrid Quarterfinal Predictions
Ons Jabeur vs Madison Keys
Head-to-Head: Jabeur 2-0
Ons Jabeur holds the 2-0 head-to-head advantage over Madison Keys, though this will be their first meeting on the clay. Keys has always been a solid clay-court player, showing those skills off at WTA Madrid. She knocked out two seeds this week, including compatriot Coco Gauff in the Round of 16. In that two-hour, 30-minute battle, Keys proved she has the match fitness to play deep into three-setters on the dirt.
Jabeur has always favored clay as her favorite surface. She holds a 72.3% winning percentage in clay-court WTA matches, including a 45-13 mark since 2021. Jabeur has had a much-needed bounce-back week at WTA Madrid. Coming into this event, she had won just one of her previous seven matches. Her 6-0, 6-4 Round of 16 win over Ostapenko put the tour on notice that she will be a contender in Paris.
This should be an entertaining battle between two clean ball-strikers. Jabeur’s aforementioned struggles seem to be behind her, as her play this week should give her a lot of confidence heading into this quarterfinal bout.
Prediction: Jabeur in 3
Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia
Head-to-Head: Swiatek 2-1 Haddad Maia
No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek is once again having a terrific season. The 22-year-old Pole is 29-4 this year and is the favorite to win the second slam of the season. Swiatek’s 68-10 career clay-court record is absolutely remarkable. Her balance, poise, and ball striking make it nearly impossible for her to be beaten on the dirt.
Beatriz Haddad Maia was ousted by Swiatek 6-2, 7-6 in the 2023 French Open semifinals. After that loss, the Brazilian reached a career-high ranking of World No. 10 and has been a top-15 player since. Haddad Maia has yet to drop a set in three matches at WTA Madrid and is coming off a dominant 6-4, 6-4 win over No. 5 seed Maria Sakkari.
Swiatek is 22-2 in her career against lefties and 52-5 in her last 57 clay-court matches. The odds are stacked against Haddad Maia, and I struggle to see her finding a path to victory unless the Pole gives up an unusually high number of unforced errors.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea – USA TODAY Sports
