96 players started the marathon at this year’s ATP Miami Open, but only eight remain as the tournament reaches the quarterfinal stage. Defending champion Daniil Medvedev remains in the hunt for his first title of the season after losing his last five finals. Carlos Alcaraz, meanwhile, will take another step to win the Sunshine Double when he plays Bulgarian one-hander Grigor Dimitrov. Who will reach the semifinal?
ATP Miami Open Quarterfinal Predictions
Jannik Sinner vs Tomas Machac
Head-to-head: first meeting
If Jannik Sinner was looking for a test before the semifinal, he’ll get one here. Tomas Machac has been steadily climbing the rankings for months now (guaranteed top 50 breakthrough after Miami). Last week, tennis fans warmed to his talents after he scored his first top-10 win by beating Andrey Rublev in a resounding fashion. Sinner has made a better start to the season of any player in 2024, although a resurgent Alcaraz ended his undefeated streak. But in Miami, his run to the semifinal will likely be unabated.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolas Jarry
Heaad-to-head: Medvedev 1-0 Jarry
Most of Daniil Medvedev’s matches at this year’s Sunshine Swing have followed a pattern of starting slow and finishing strongly. But, he cannot afford any sort of profligacy at this stage as the level of competition gets harder. Nicolas Jarry, for his part, has weathered the storm in each of his three rounds, including a chaotic comeback against fellow South American Thiago Seyboth Wild. The Chilean arrived at ATP Miami extremely cold, with just one win in his last five matches. The turnaround has been seriously impressive. His power and accuracy off the ground need to be immaculate against a great defender like Medvedev. The Russian’s ability to nullify power hitters is his stock-in-trade, and he will hold the edge.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Fabian Marozsan vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head: first meeting
Fabian Marozsan picked up his 14th win in 17 matches in ATP 1000 events. It translated to an 82.3% winning ratio for tournaments of this category, with a minimum of ten matches (higher than Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic). With his ranking set to soar into the top 40, the Hungarian will be a regular at ATP events. What makes his record at this level the more remarkable is that he’s been taking down the ATP’s cream of the crop. Last year, there were wins over Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud. This week, he’s beaten two top 10 players to reach an unlikely quarterfinal. But will his attacking tennis knock out an in-form Zverev?
The German is enjoying a great run even though he’s got no titles for proof of his efforts. He is serving impeccably, and his rally tolerance is an underrated part of his game. Marozsan will give it his best shot and has the capability to steal a set potentially. However, Zverev’s more robust game, especially in these conditions, favors him greatly.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-1 Dimitrov
It’s all well in Carlos Alcaraz’s world. Talk of the Spaniard’s mini-slump was exaggerated. Alcaraz quelled his critics with a masterful run to win his second Indian Wells title a fortnight ago. And he is just three wins away from occupying a rarefied list of champions to achieve the Sunshine Double (“Double Sunshine,” as he calls it).
Grigor Dimitrov’s solitary win in the series was at the Shanghai Masters last October. It was at the time when Alcaraz’s confidence was at its lowest point. It also coincided with the Bulgarian’s purple patch as just a few weeks later, he headlined his second Masters final (lost to Djokovic in Bercy).
The tables should turn in Miami. That is not to say Dimitrov is not firing on all cylinders. In fact, quite the contrary. He ended his seven-year title drought this season and is on the cusp of a top-1o return. Alcaraz is head and shoulders above everyone else this spring, and that will be mirrored in the final score.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
