The 2024 Slam season is officially upon us as the Australian Open begins on Sunday with 16 ATP singles matches and 16 WTA singles matches. We at LWOT have previews and predictions for every Australian Open match, led by Frances Tiafoe vs Borna Coric in this article. Damian Kust, Jordan Reynolds, and Shane Black offer their insights and predictions.
Australian Open Day 1 Predictions
Marin Cilic vs Fabian Marozsan
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Damian: Cilic was actually playing insane tennis when leading Struff 6-3 5-2 in Hong Kong, it’s just that he couldn’t take it over the line and wasted nine match points. Will he taste that winning feeling again here? It’s possible if he delivers that quality again and with Marozsan looking a bit lethargic against Shelton in Auckland, maybe the former runner-up can actually go on a bit of a run here. Cilic in 5
Jordan: Cilic is returning this year after a very long spell on the sidelines with injury. Early signs have been promising, with a very tight loss against Jan-Lennard Struff and a win against Andy Murray in his first two matches. Marozsan is a young player with huge potential. He is most comfortable on clay, but is improving on hard courts, as he showed at the US Open last year. I think the Hungarian and his big forehand will just about catch the 2014 US Open champion cold so early into his comeback, but it is a difficult contest to call overall. Marozsan in 5
Shane: Cilic played just three matches in 2023 due to injury. Despite the loss, he locked fresh in Hong Kong against Struff. Cilic has always played well in Melbourne, reaching at least the fourth round in four of his last five appearances. Marozsan will be a tall task for the Croatian. The 24-year-old has a terrific serve and first ball style of play, and will put the pressure on Cilic early in this match. I expect a tight battle, but I actually favor Marozsan in a decider due to his match fitness. Marozsan in 5
Matteo Arnaldi vs Adam Walton
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Damian: Walton developed his game so much since the college days and might be knocking on the door of the top 100 in a couple of years’ time. The question is whether he hasn’t run into a draw that’s simply too far out of his current ability here. Arnaldi’s such a complete package now and looks destined to stick around at tour-level. Which weakness does Walton try to target? There’s not much to work with. Arnaldi in 4
Jordan: Arnaldi has looked quite strong in the early stages of 2024. The Italian made the quarterfinal in Brisbane, and came very close to doing it again in Adelaide, narrowly falling to Nicolás Jarry. This is Walton’s first Grand Slam main draw match, and he is yet to register a victory at ATP level. A home Australian Open crowd will try and roar him to a first win, but an improving Arnaldi on hard courts is likely to have too much. Arnaldi in 4
Shane: Arnaldi is up to a career-high ranking of world No. 41. The 22-year-old Italian won 20 ATP matches last season and started 2024 with a run to the Brisbane quarterfinals. Across the net will be Wildcard Adam Walton. The former Tennessee Volunteer is starting to find his footing in professional tennis after posting 27 Challenger wins in 2023. Walton has already beaten two top-100 players this year (Cachin and Zapata Miralles), but this is his first Slam match. Walton should produce some moments of magic, and the crowd will be behind him, but this is Arnaldi’s match to lose. Arnaldi in 4
Arthur Rinderknech vs Pavel Kotov
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Damian: Rinderknech did just enough to finish in the top 100, but his results in 2023 were far from impressive. Just on the basis of that, Kotov should be the favorite here with the flat forehand piercing through the court and how much it’s been firing of late. Stockholm final, Sofia semifinal, Hong Kong quarterfinal – that’s his last three events. Best of five play he hasn’t really excelled at, but I can’t go against him with the efforts of late. Kotov in 5
Jordan: Kotov finished last season very strongly, including reaching the Stockholm final, where he narrowly lost to Gael Monfils. He started the new season with a quarterfinal in Hong Kong and looks in good shape. Rinderknech has started the season shakily by comparison. He is the lower ranked of the two players, and I feel he may struggle to deal with Kotov’s powerful serving and groundstrokes in the Melbourne conditions. I think Kotov could take this in straight sets. Kotov in 3
Shane: Rinderknech had an inconsistent 2023 season but still is highly ranked enough to receive an automatic entry into the Australian Open. That said, a strong result in Melbourne would go a long way for his prospects at 2024 tournaments. He faces a tough test with the 25-year-old Russian. Kotov holds a career best ranking of world No. 64 after reaching the Hong Kong quarterfinals to start the year. He is clean off the ground and plays with the aggression needed to excel on hardcourts. The Frenchman will battle, but Kotov should prevail. Kotov in 4
Frances Tiafoe vs Borna Coric
Head-to-Head: Tiafoe 0-1 Coric
Damian: This once could have been an incredible match, but Coric is just coming back after an injury and Tiafoe has been out of form. It’s so hard to predict who might have more to give on a given day right now. The Croat did alright at the United Cup and even when playing exhibitions the past week or so, Tiafoe was losing a lot. Of course that’s not a big argument, but let’s say Coric is a touch more trustworthy. Coric in 5
Jordan: This is Coric’s first match since the US Open first-round at the end of August. Stepping straight back into a Grand Slam match with a recent Top 10 players feels like a big ask for the Croat. Tiafoe’s level can fluctuate at times, and he will be hoping to find consistency in 2024. But the American should be comfortable here against an opponent lacking in match practice. Tiafoe in 3
Shane: This is one of the more intruiging first round matches on the slate. Neither player comes in with much form, but both have the potential to make a run deep into the second week. Tiafoe has won just three matches since the US Open but typically plays some of his best tennis at Slams. Coric did not play the last four months of 2023 due to an injury. I expect a tight battle, but I believe Coric’s lack of match fitness will cost him against a great mover like Tiafoe. Tiafoe in 5
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch – USA TODAY Sports
