The ATP Brisbane International will be played is back on the schedule in place of the ATP Cup. A number of star names, including Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Holger Rune are participating, but the action begins on Sunday with two first-round matches. In addition, the final round of qualifying will be played, featuring 2020 US Open champion Dominic Thiem. But who will advance?
ATP Brisbane Day 1 Predictions
Daniel Elahi Galan vs Li Tu (Qualifying)
Head-to-head: first meeting
Li Tu was a break-out star during the 2021 Australian swing, returning to tennis after a multi-year break from the sport. After his sole Grand Slam main draw appearance at the 2021 Australian Open, he has yet to consistently play top-tier tennis on the ATP tour. However, the second half of 2023 may be a catalyst for big results this upcoming season, as he won his first ATP tour-level match in Newport and reached two ATP Challenger Tour semifinals.
The 27-year-old will have to prepare for a long battle against Daniel Elahi Galan, a player that gets a lot of balls back and draws opponents to frequently make mistakes. While Galan is strongest on the clay courts, he has 19 main draw hard courts wins to his name, including a stunning victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas at the 2022 US Open. Galan went 9-22 at main draw level in 2023, slipping nearly 40 spots in the rankings down to #93. However, he has experience against up-and-coming players that should outweigh Tu’s firepower and home crowd advantage.
Prediction: Galan in 3
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Dominic Thiem vs Giulio Zeppieri (Qualifying)
Head-to-head: first meeting
Thiem isn’t at the peak of his powers. He’ll have to fight through another qualifying match to make it into the Brisbane main draw. He nearly suffered a disastrous first-round loss to James McCabe on Saturday, falling behind 6-2 5-3 40-0 on Mccabe’s serve. But nerves crept into McCabe’s game and Thiem was able to grind out the win in three sets. The Austrian’s comeback will likely give him confidence and a new sense of hope going into this match. Expect Thiem to play better compared to his first qualifying match.
Zeppieri’s 2023 season was his best on tour, reaching a career-high ranking of #115 and making his Grand Slam debut at the French Open. His lefty, topspin forehand will likely target Thiem’s weaker backhand, forcing Thiem to hit uncomfortable shots and run around to hit his forehand. However, after Thiem’s comeback victory, this feels like a match the Austrian should be well prepared for. Thiem will have to hope no venomous snakes chaotically impact the match.
Prediction: Thiem in 2
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Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Shevchenko
Head-to-head: Van Assche 2-1 Shevchenko
Both players are coming off successful 2023 campaigns, notably reaching their peak form towards the end of the season. Alexander Shevchenko’s last match was a 6-3 6-3 loss to Ugo Humbert in the final of the ATP 250 Moselle event. Along the way, he claimed one of his biggest career wins over Karen Kchachanov.
Just before Moselle, he upset Taylor Fritz in Basel, winning a three-set thriller to secure his first top 10 victory. Van Assche also achieved a great result at the ATP Next Gen Finals, reaching the finals and falling to Arthur Fils in four sets. Both players are close to their career-high ranking as a result.
This match should feature many enticing and long rallies. Both Van Assche and Shevchenko are neither too aggressive nor too defensive, possessing all-court games that include net play and drop shots. Either player could win this match, but Shevchenko is probably the likelier winner based on a higher ranking and a great recent hard-court record that has gone under the radar.
Prediction: Shevchenko in 3
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Alexei Popyrin vs Christopher O’Connell
Head-to-head: Popyrin 1-0 O’Connell
The marquee matchup on Day 1 features two Australian players at similar stages of their careers. Popyrin will have to conquer a hefty load of pressure on his shoulders this month, defending quarterfinalist points in Adelaide and third-round points at the Australian Open. A successful January will allow Popyrin to preserve his spot as the second-ranked Australian player on tour. He notably took out Felix Auger-Alliasime in Adelaide last season, in addition to winning a five-set thriller over Taylor Fritz at the Australian Open. That match occurred on a rowdy John Cain Arena, atmospheres he’ll look to replicate this January.
On the other hand, O’Connell was winless during the 2023 Australian swing. He improved his form towards the end of 2023, reaching a career-high ranking of #53 with his power off the serve and an excellent one-handed backhand. Popyrin won their only previous meeting in Rome last season, potentially giving him confidence going into this matchup and he should be the slight favorite in what is a relatively evenly-matched encounter on paper.
Prediction: Popyrin in 3
Main photo credit: Cara Owsley/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
