The red group begins on the second day of the ATP Finals in Turin. Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz plays Alexander Zverev in the afternoon and Daniil Medvedev battles Andrey Rublev in the evening contest. As always, we at LWOT provide our analysis and predictions for both matches on day 2 of the final ATP event of 2023. But which two players do you think will win their opening match in Turin?
ATP Finals Day 2 Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev
Head-to-head: Medvedev 6-2 Rublev
These two had a titanic battle at this event last year, with Rublev triumphing 9-7 in a final-set tiebreak. Medvedev lost all three of his matches at the 2022 ATP Finals in a third-set tiebreak. However, he comes into this year’s edition after a much stronger season overall. The 2021 US Open champion also defeated Rublev relatively easily in straight sets in their previous two matches in 2023.
Although Rublev has has still yet to make it past the quarterfinal of a Grand Slam, this season did see him win a first Masters 1000 title and play a lot of great tennis overall. Yet, he is still unlikely to win here. The memories of that epic win last year will help him mentally to some degree, which provides some hope. Nonetheless, Medvedev is likely to produce a much stronger performance this time. At his best, Medvedev is comfortable absorbing Rublev’s aggression in long rallies until his compatriot is eventually forced into making an error. That is likely to be a consistent pattern in this ATP Finals match.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-3 Zverev
Both players have struggled by their standards in recent weeks. Zverev has lost four of his last eight matches since winning the Chengdu Open in September, while Alcaraz comes into the ATP Finals on the back of consecutive defeats. The head-to-head shows that Zverev is capable of troubling Alcaraz, although the Spaniard did win their previous two encounters very easily.
However, this event may be Zverev’s best chance of turning the tables on the two-time Grand Slam champion. Alcaraz struggles most at indoor tournaments and the German won the ATP Finals at the same venue in Turin two years ago, although he undoubtedly needs to raise his level to have a chance of repeating that achievement. Conditions at the ATP Finals can also help Zverev more in this matchup compared to the last two matches with Alcaraz. The court’s medium-speed and bounce gives the 26-year-old enough time to hit through the court and to not be overwhelmed by Alcaraz’s intensity on a fast court or get dragged into very long rallies on a slow court.
Alcaraz is capable of raising his level suddenly as he did at Wimbledon but there is a sense he may just be running out of steam after a long season. Zverev to cause an upset at the ATP Finals by edging this one.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
