It has been a terrific week of tennis at the ATP Tokyo Open, with many upsets and dramatic moments. Ben Shelton and Aslan Karatsev are the last two players standing in the Japanese capital. Karatsev is looking to win his fourth ATP title, while US Open semifinalist Shelton is seeking a maiden ATP singles crown. It promises to be a thrilling match. We at LWOT provide our prediction and analysis for the final in this article. But who do you think will win the title in Tokyo?
ATP Tokyo Final Prediction
Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev
Head-to-head: Shelton 1-0 Karatsev
Both players are carrying different types of momentum heading into the final. Karatsev played very well in the semifinal against Shintaro Mochizuki. He overcame a partisan crowd and an opponent in the midst of a dream run with relative ease in straight sets. By contrast, Shelton pulled off an extraordinary win against his fellow countryman Marcos Giron. The 21-year-old trailed 6-7 2-5, and was down a double-break in the second set, but came back to claim a stunning victory. Therefore, each man will feel confident before the ATP Tokyo Open final.
Shelton does have the mental advantage of a recent win against Karatsev. That came in the third-round of this year’s US Open, with Shelton winning in four sets en route to the semifinals, and the final two sets finished 6-2 6-0. In addition, the American’s mental strength and tennis IQ is developing so quickly. He is staying more patient and holding his nerve better during the rallies, and would not have come back to beat Giron without that improvement. Shelton will also feel he can do big damage with his serve in this matchup, since Karatsev’s return s not one of the very best on the ATP Tour.
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Yet Karatsev is a very dangerous opponent. The Russian’s level can fluctuate throughout the season but it is challenging to stop him when he finds his range. This is particularly the case in fast conditions, and the courts in Tokyo are among the fastest on the ATP Tour. Karatsev has not dropped a set during the tournament so far, primarily due to his huge hitting from the baseline. He is capable of using the pace of Shelton’s groundstrokes to his advantage on a fast and low bouncing court.
Karatsev also has excellent passing shots, which may be key given how often Shelton comes to the net during a match. Shelton has a good chance if he serves well. However, if his serve is slightly off, Karatsev can take advantage in his current form. He gets the slightest of edges to do just that at the ATP Tokyo Open.
Prediction: Karatsev in 3
Main photo credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
