The third Slam of the year is upon us as all eyes in the tennis world have descended upon London for Wimbledon 2023. The 128-man singles draw is as competitive as ever, with players up and down the bracket capable of pulling off massive upsets. Given the unprecedented American success at the 2023 Australian Open, I looked at the chances that collective run could be repeated.
There are 12 Americans in the men’s singles draw at the All England Club, the second most of any country (behind France). I combined current form, grass-court comfortability, and draw difficulty to predict how I thought every American would do at the 2023 Championships at Wimbledon. I have separated the men into four categories: the contenders, potential second-week run, could win a few matches, and happy to be here. Let’s look at where these men fit in and how I believe they will fare over the next two weeks.
The Contenders
Taylor Fritz
Last year Taylor Fritz played his best tennis at Wimbledon, making a run to the quarterfinals before falling to Rafael Nadal in an epic five-setter. The American has always been a solid grass-court player, winning his first ATP title on the surface back in 2019. That said, he has looked sluggish on the surface this season. Fritz is 2-3 on the grass and must raise his level to make another deep run at Wimbledon. His powerful serve and forehand give him a chance against anyone in the world. He should have no trouble winning his first two matches and draws a favourable-seeded third-round match against Yoshihito Nishioka. A blockbuster fourth-round matchup against Jannik Sinner will likely be on the docket. If Fritz can get past that match, I believe he could be playing on the second Sunday of the tournament.
Prediction: Fourth-round loss to Sinner
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe plays his best tennis on the biggest stages. He holds a 19-8 record in his last eight slam events. Tiafoe comes to the All England Club holding a career-best ranking of world #10. He won his first grass-court title two weeks ago in Stuttgart and is playing with supreme confidence. Tiafoe draws an intriguing first-round opponent in Wu Yibing before a potential third-round matchup against 21st seed Grigor Dimitrov. I have him getting past the Bulgarian, but I ultimately see him falling to Holger Rune in the last 16.
Prediction: Fourth-round loss to Rune
Sebastian Korda
I believe Sebastian Korda has the highest ceiling of any American on the ATP Tour. He plays with an effortless grace magnified on a surface such as grass. The 22-year-old American reached the fourth round of Wimbledon in 2021 but was absent from the event last year. Korda made a run to the Queen’s Club semifinals in his only grass-court tournament of the year. That said, he returns to London having played just eight matches since retiring at the Australian Open with a wrist injury. The draw sets up very well for Korda, and I would not be shocked to see him advance very deep into the second week. For prediction purposes, I have him losing to 12th seed Cameron Norrie in the third round solely based on lack of match fitness.
Prediction: Third-round loss to Norrie
Potential second-week run
Mackenzie McDonald
Mackenzie McDonald has been a solid grass-court player over his career and reached the fourth round at Wimbledon back in 2018. This season, he is 7-3 on the surface with wins over two top-15 players. He takes on 23rd seed Alexander Bublik in the first-round in what I have marked as one of the best early encounters on the slate. I have Bublik overcoming the American in that match, but if McDonald squeaks by, do not be surprised if he strings together some wins in London.
Prediction: first-round loss to Bublik
Tommy Paul
After a blistering start to the season, Tommy Paul experienced a two-month stretch through April and May where he held a 2-5 record in tour-level matches. He has since found some form on the grass, winning four of his last five matches. Paul reached the fourth round of Wimbledon last season and has a draw that is once again favourable. I see Paul getting the better of Francisco Cerundo in the last 32 before falling to the in-form Tallon Griekspoor.
Prediction: Fourth-round loss to Griekspoor
Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton can become an elite grass-court player, but his lack of experience will hurt him at Wimbledon. He is 1-2 in his career on the surface. Shelton has a winnable first-round match against Taro Daniel and will then take on the winner of Maxime Cressy and Laslo Djere. Even if he pushes his way into the third round, waiting for him will be the survivor of the Murray/Peniston/Thiem/
Prediction: Third-round loss to Murray
Could win a few matches
Maxime Cressy
Maxime Cressy has shown to be a solid grass-court player in the past, but his current form is very troubling. He has won just one match since the beginning of March, so expecting him to reel off anything more than a win or two in London would be asking a lot.
Prediction: Second-round loss to Shelton
Christopher Eubanks
Christopher Eubanks has risen 85 spots in the rankings over the past year and will compete in the main draw at Wimbledon for the first time. He is 9-3 on the grass this season and has a chance to raise his first career ATP title in Mallorca on Saturday. Eubanks takes on Thiago Monteiro in the first-round, a match where he will be the favourite. However, a second-round match against 12th seed Cameron Norrie will provide a massive challenge. Eubanks has the serve to hang in that encounter, but beating a Brit in London is always a tall task.
Prediction: Second-round loss to Norrie
Marcos Giron
Marcos Giron has had an up-and-down year and is just 2-3 on the grass this season. He has reached the second round at Wimbledon each of the past two years, and while I believe that is possible again, I do not see his stay lasting longer than that. He will be a favourite over Hugo Dellien in his opener but will likely square off against 28th seed Griekspoor in the round of 64. A winnable match, yes, but Griekspoor is 7-1 this season on the surface and is someone I see going on a deep run into the second week.
Prediction: Second-round loss to Griekspoor
John Isner
Despite having yet to win a match since early February, you can never count out John Isner and his massive serve on grass. This will be Isner’s first grass-court match of the season and just his second match since early April. I expect him to power his way by Jaume Munar, but 14th seed Lorenzo Musetti will be able to return enough of Isner’s serve to take down the veteran American.
Prediction: Second-round loss to Musetti
J.J. Wolf
J.J. Wolf has risen more than 150 spots in the world rankings over the past 18 months and will be competing at Wimbledon for the first time. The 24-year-old American is 3-3 in his grass-court career but does have tools tailored to the surface. Wolf’s powerful serve and baseline consistency should lend itself to a first-round win over French qualifier Enzo Couacaud. Still, I believe his debut Wimbledon run ends in second-round.
Prediction: Second-round loss to Bublik
Happy to be here
Brandon Nakashima
Brandon Nakashima’s spot on this list does not reflect what I think about him as a player. I believe the current seventh-ranked America (world #51) has a great chance to turn into a top 20 player in the future. That being said, Nakashima has a second-round date with defending champion Novak Djokovic should both players win their first-round matches. The 21-year-old American will likely be the favourite over Jordan Thompson in his opener, but the odds he will take down Djokovic are slim to none.
Prediction: Second-round loss to Djokovic
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