After the proceedings at the ATP Acapulco Open had been somewhat dulled with the withdrawal of Carlos Alcaraz, early exit from Casper Ruud and the injury of Matteo Berrettini, the tournament had an exciting set of matches at the semifinal stage, producing the final of Tommy Paul against Alex de Minaur. As always, we here at LWOT will preview and predict every match. Who do you think will lift the trophy?
ATP Acapulco Final Prediction
Tommy Paul vs Alex De Minaur
Head-to-head: de Minaur 3-0 Paul
After his breakout run to the Australian Open semifinals, Paul did not have the best follow-up, losing to Radu Albot in Delray Beach. The American started doing better once he was in Acapulco, beating Emilio Gomez, getting a second-set retirement from Michael Mmoh, and allowing Mackenzie McDonald just four games to set up a semifinal clash with Taylor Fritz. Paul managed to overcome the world #5 as well, though it was not easy.
The 25-year-old won the first set 6-3 and had a match point at 5-4 in the second but Fritz saved it, won the tiebreak, and also went ahead a break in the third. Paul saved four break points at 5-5 and got two more match points at 6-5, Fritz saving them to take the deciding set to a tiebreak where Paul dominated 7-2. De Minaur enjoyed an easy draw to start his Acapulco campaign, not facing a Top 800 player until the quarterfinals. The Australian dispatched Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez and Jacopo Berrettini, allowing them four combined games.
Taro Daniel failed to challenge de Minaur either, the 24-year-old cruising to a 6-2 6-2 win. The final four is where the real challenge came, with Holger Rune at the opposite side of the net. Rune took the first set 6-3 but De Minaur completed the comeback to win 3-6 7-5 6-2 to reach the third ATP 500 final of his career, losing in the first two.
De Minaur will have a considerable advantage when it comes to head-to-head against Paul, winning all three of their previous meetings, all of which were last season and on three different surfaces. Paul came the closest in their most recent match in Eastbourne, winning a set while de Minaur beat him in straights in both Rome and Indian Wells. With fatigue also potentially coming into play as Paul just played a three-and-a-half-hour-long battle, De Minaur is the favorite for me here.
Prediction: de Minaur in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
