ATP Rio has produced a very intriguing semifinals lineup with the top two seeds, Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie, facing in-form challengers outside of the Top 50 in Nicolas Jarry and Bernabe Zapata Miralles. As always, we here at LWOT will preview and predict every match. Who do you think will go to the final?
ATP Rio Semifinal Predictions
Cameron Norrie vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles
Head-to-head: first meeting
Norrie is trying to reach his third final already in 2023, still looking for his first title of the season after taking losses to Richard Gasquet in Auckland and Carlos Alcaraz last week in Buenos Aires. This week, the 27-year-old defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Thiago Monteiro in straight sets before facing down a tougher challenge in the quarterfinals. Norrie went a set down to Hugo Dellien of Bolivia but turned the match around to win 6-4 in the third. 26-year-old Bernabe Zapata Miralles has now made back-to-back semifinals on the ATP Tour and is set to make his Top 50 debut. Last week, the Spaniard beat Francisco Cerundolo, Diego Schwartzman, and Pedro Martinez. At ATP Rio, Zapata Miralles opened with a win over his countryman Jaume Munar in straight sets. The 26-year-old then got his second win over Cerundolo in two weeks and upset Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the semifinals. Zapata Miralles will provide a real challenge to Norrie but one I believe the Brit will overcome.
Prediction: Norrie in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Nicolas Jarry
Head-to-head: first meeting
Hoping to equal Novak Djokovic’s points tally with a title this week, leaving the 35-year-old Serb holding on to the top spot only due to a tiebreaker, Alcaraz has extra motivation to go all the way last week. After missing the Australian Open due to injury, the 19-year-old showed a bit of rust in his Buenos Aires opener dropping a set to Laslo Djere, but not dropping another one en route to the title. This week, Alcaraz has seemed less certain in Rio, beating Mateus Alves in straight sets but struggling against Fabio Fognini. The World No. 2 dropped his serve four times in a row and had to come back from a set down despite the Italian’s struggles with his ankle. In his last match, the Spaniard made yet another step towards a successful title defense with a 6-4 7-6 win over Dusan Lajovic. Jarry has stepped up a level compared to what he has shown over the past year this week, through to his first semifinal on the ATP Tour since Bastad 2019, before his doping ban. The Chilean has dropped just 26 games across his five matches in Rio including qualifying, taking out Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Juan Manuel Cerundolo to reach the main draw. Jarry then upset third seed Lorenzo Musetti in the first round, defeated Pedro Martinez, and pulled off another upset over Sebastian Baez. Alcaraz has an interesting opponent in front of him but I believe he will deal with Jarry’s aggressive baseline style, though his current form is impressive.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main photo credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
