On Sunday, we will get to see a blockbuster final match at the Australian Open. The last time these two met in a Grand Slam final, Stefanos Tsitsipas won the first two sets before Djokovic roared back to win the 2021 French Open final. Will we see similar on Sunday in Melbourne? As always, our writers share their thoughts on the match for you. Predicting the final are Jim Smith, Shane Black, Jakub Bobro, Nurein Ahmed, and Jack Edward. Who do you think will win?
Australian Open Final Predictions
Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Jim:
Djokovic looked troubled physically at times against Paul in the semifinals and played some indifferent tennis the rest of the time. He was still barely troubled by the American, who was having the best fortnight of his career. Of course, Tsitsipas is a better player than the American. But although the Greek has more strengths than Paul, he also has more weaknesses.
His backhand return, in particular, will surely be targeted by Djokovic. In fact, it is hard to see his backhand standing up to Djokovic’s full stop, with the Serb sure to win the majority of the cross-court exchanges. That will leave Tsitsipas reliant on his serve and forehand to do the damage. They may do some, but it won’t be enough. Tsitsipas has lost nine matches on the bounce to Djokovic. He won’t snap that streak in Djokovic’s fortress.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Shane:
Djokovic’s level over the past two weeks has been ridiculous. He has dropped just one set and is playing with such controlled aggression his opponents have struggled to even take games off of him. Tsitsipias has to overcome the mental hurdle of losing his last nine matches to Djokovic but seems to be in the form to trouble the nine-time champ.
The one place Djokovic has shown vulnerability is during longer rallies. Tommy Paul and Grigor Dimitrov were able to put pressure on his injured left hamstring and cause him a bit of discomfort. Tsitsipas’ path to victory is to outlast the Serb with extended rallies of variation around the court. That said, I think Djokovic is too locked in to fall on his favorite court.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4
Nurein:
Novak Djokovic has faltered in high-stake matches before. He is not immune to pressure. The 2015 French Open final and 2021 US Open final are common examples. So there is reason to believe an in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas has a chance on Sunday, albeit a very tiny one.
Tsitispas needs to stick to his guns, and ensure he is extremely aggressive from the baseline. He has the best combination of serve and the mid-court forehand finish that can hit through any defense including Djokovic. So far his game is holding up nicely, but I do worry if he goes behind, say he plays from the back foot because it hasn’t happened to him all fortnight.
Djokovic does his tactics and homework very well. Somehow, he knows his potential opponent in the final. He singled out Nick Kyrgios at last year’s Wimbledon, and he’s already mentioned Tsitsipas even before he won his quarterfinal match. We haven’t thrown around the word epic many times this Australian Open, but I reckon we will get one with Djokovic denying the Greek again.
Prediction: Djokovic in 5
Jakub:
An amazing final match-up that has the potential to become a classic. The two players have had relatively easy roads to the final and are undefeated on the year. Djokovic dispelled any doubt around his fitness that he started the tournament with. The Serb has dropped just one set on the run, to Enzo Couacaud of all his opponents, and has looked especially dominant against Alex De Minaur, Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul in his last three matches.
Tsitsipas has had tougher times at points, going five sets with Jannik Sinner. Djokovic has won 10 of their 12 previous meetings, including the 2021 Roland Garros final where the Greek led by two sets to love that both players seem to have forgotten about. I picked Tsitsipas at the start of the tournament so I will stick with him but he will need his very best level to beat Djokovic now.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 5
Jack:
It’s the final many predicted. Does Stefanos Tsitsipas have a chance of taking his first Grand Slam title? It’s unlikely against the nine-time champion but it is possible.
- The balls are a little slower than previous tournaments. This will give Djokovic’s kick-serve to the Tsitsipas backhand less bite making the Greek less vulnerable in his return game than he would be normally in this match-up. It will also give Tsitsipas a little more time to set up his forehand which is arguably better on offence than the former world #1’s.
- Tsitsipas has shown he’s up for the challenge mentally this tournament. He’s saved 44 of the 53 break points he’s faced and dropped just three sets going into the final.
- Tsitsipas’s win against Borna Coric at the United Cup showed he is ready to hang with some of the best backhands cross-court in the world in his current form.
There are plenty of advantages falling Tsitsipas’s way that would suggest this could be closer than some of their previous meetings. All of these advantages, however, don’t fully negate Djokovic’s insane record in Australia. I think it’ll go the distance, but Djokovic will ultimately claim his tenth title here.
Prediction: Djokovic in 5
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