Four rounds later at the ATP Adelaide International and we have one of the first finals of the year, contested by both a predictable and relatively unpredictable pair of finalists. After four rounds of enthralling tennis, one of the first finals of this fledgling season is set. It will be contested by one of the greatest of all time and a player still trying to prove that he is one of the ‘next generation’. That second player is having an excellent week mind. As always, we here at LWOT are offering our prediction, but will it be Novak Djokovic or Sebastian Korda who comes out on top?
ATP Adelaide Final Prediction
Novak Djokovic vs Sebastian Korda
Head-to-head: first meeting
Let’s start with the predictable. Djokovic has won four out of the last five tournaments he’s played and he’s riding a a 34-match winning-streak in Australia–reaching the final in Adelaide is no surprise.
Even his dismissal of Daniil Medvedev wasn’t a shock. Not really. Djokovic’s win was expected, but Medvedev’s poor serving under pressure in his straight-sets loss wasn’t. That said, it was a regular theme last year so perhaps it wasn’t a surprise that it came back to haunt him against his biggest rival. Whilst Medvedev couldn’t take care of proceedings on his side of the court, Djokovic did with aplomb. He wasn’t broken once against the Russian, playing his highest-quality brand of efficient, quick-fire tennis on a fast hard-court.
Keep this in mind. Medvedev is likely the greatest returner of his generation and even he couldn’t break Djokovic’s serve.
Moving on to the less predictable contender in our final, Sebi Korda… but just how unpredictable is his inclusion? The American arguably has the most potential of his compatriots. At a glance, the stats may not look great for his serving performance in 2022 (60th overall for most service games held). Dig a little deeper however and you’ll find Korda is rising in level at breakneck speed.
- For the latter half of the year, Korda was 20th-best at holding serve on tour.
- He was also 13th-best at breaking serve on the tour, nine spots above his next-best compatriot Jenson Brooksby.
The tour is struggling to keep up with the fact Korda has the whole package. Over the last few months, he’s shown he can blast through service games whilst posing enough of a threat off either wing on return to break down his opponent’s serve efficiently.
So Korda’s level is higher than most would expect–we believe this includes Novak Djokovic who won’t know what’s hit him for a set. That’s where the unpredictability factor ends however. If the greatest returner of a generation couldn’t break serve once, we’re not sure Korda can do it multiple times over the course of three sets. We eventually expect Djokovic to make it five out of his last six tournaments won.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
