As we begin the new year, I will once again be giving my ATP predictions for the upcoming 2023 season. In this article, I shall be giving my predictions on what the rankings will look like in 12 months time. So without further ado here are my predictions…
2023 ATP Predictions: Year-End Top 10 Rankings
10. Stefanos Tsitsipas [Greece, 2022 Ranking: 4]
The Greek player should have enough good moments to remain in the Top 10 next year but I feel his window of opportunity to win a Grand Slam may be over. Besides his run to the semifinals at last year’s Australian Open, his 2022 Grand Slam results were rather disappointing. With other young(er) players rising up the ranks to overtake Tsitsipas, I believe he will have a slight fall down the rankings in 2023.
9. Holger Rune [Denmark, 2022 Ranking: 11]
The Danish teenager definitely has the potential to be a top villain figure (to the sensitive tennis stans on Twitter) in the coming years. Rune showed glimpses of his potential in 2022 with his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Paris and a run to the French Open quarterfinals. His career is clearly on an upward trajectory and having finished just outside the Top 10 this year, I believe he will finish inside it next year.
8. Taylor Fritz [USA, 2022 Ranking: 9]
The American had a breakthrough year in 2022 with his first ATP Master 1000 title in Indian Wells and his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon. It is a surprise that it has taken this long for Fritz to end up in the Top 10 but I believe he is now here to stay. From what we saw this year, another Top 10 finish (and potentially a Grand Slam semifinal) should be on the cards for Fritz in 2023.
7. Casper Ruud [Norway, 2022 Ranking: 3]
The Norweigan overachieved in 2022 reaching (his first) finals at the French Open, US Open, and ATP Finals. Despite these admirable accomplishments, I don’t see Ruud replicating these results with such a weak backhand in 2023, given the depth of the ATP. In fact I would not be surprised if he never reached another Grand Slam final. However, he should be able to succeed in his comfort zone–ATP 250 tournaments–and capitalize of some draw openings in bigger tournaments. Therefore, I predict Ruud to finish lower in 2023 than 2022, but still comfortably in the Top 10.
6. Andrey Rublev [Russia, 2022 Ranking: 8]
I don’t think many people including myself would consider Rublev to be in the ten best ATP players in the world right now. However, the rankings often reflect those who are more committed, not the most competent player. Rublev is arguably the greatest vulture of this generation and will likely rack up ranking points at Tour events that his peers may only see treat as competitive exhibitions. In addition, the Russian showed signs of being less mediocre by reaching the semifinals at the ATP Finals and so a Grand Slam semifinal (after six quarterfinal defeats) may be on the cards in 2023. Therefore, I expect Rublev to finish in the Top 10 once more next year.
5. Felix Auger-Aliassime [Canada, 2022 Ranking: 6]
Winning the ATP Cup at the start of 2022 was exactly what Auger-Aliassime needed for his career. Coming out of a tournament victorious with Team Canada gave him the confidence he could finally win a tournament by himself, with the 22-year old winning the first four ATP titles in 2022. His Grand Slam season was slightly underwhelming with only one quarterfinal appearance (at the Australian Open), although I still believe that if had taken the match point he had against Medvedev in that match he would have gone on to win the tournament. However, with this newfound confidence, I believe the Canadian will perform better in the Grand Slams and win some more tour titles next year, to end 2023 in the Top 5 of the rankings.
4. Daniil Medvedev [Russia, 2022 Ranking: 7]
After a breakthrough 2021 where Medvedev won his first Grand Slam title, 2022 was quite an underwhelming year for the Russian. However, this was likely because he was playing many big tournaments as the No.1 player/top seed or defending champion, which are not circumstances he tends to thrive in. As the pressure is now off for 2023, I expect to see Medvedev start to climb the rankings again and be a contender for the tour’s biggest hard court titles.
3. Rafael Nadal [Spain, 2022 Ranking: 2]
The last time Nadal finished a year outside the Top 10 of the ATP rankings was 2004! Therefore, it is a safe bet to assume he will remain at the top of men’s tennis in 2023. The question will be about where in the Top 10 he will finish. Nadal will still be a favorite to win any tournament on clay next year and so assuming he plays a full season, I can see him finishing next year still inside the Top 3 of the rankings.
2. Carlos Alcaraz [Spain, 2022 Ranking: 1]
Finishing 2022 as World No.1 was a phenomenal achievement for the young Spaniard. However, I do think there were some fortunate circumstances that made this possible and so I am not sure he can do it again in 2023. However, given his talent I think he will come pretty close. His youth should mean he has a busy tournament schedule and his versatility will give him chances to pick up points on all surfaces, even if he doesn’t have a triumph as big as his US Open victory.
1. Novak Djokovic [Serbia, 2022 Ranking: 5]
The fact Djokovic was unfairly denied participation into the Australian Open and US Open, as well as not amounting any ranking points for his Wimbledon victory due to some poor decision-making by the British Tennis establishment, but still managed to finish 2022 in the Top 5 of the rankings is testament to what an incredible player Djokovic is. With Djokovic now abl to compete in Australia, it appears that the Serbian is poised to start 2023 as strongly as he ended 2022. Given that he is a favorite to win any tournament he enters, I am predicting Djokovic to return to his rightful place at the top of the rankings in 2023.
Main Photo from Getty.
