We head into the final Masters of the season with three ATP Finals places up for grabs with four players left in the Race, including Taylor Fritz who begins his Paris campaign tomorrow. As always, we here at LWOT will preview and predict every match. Who do you think will win?
ATP Paris Masters Day 1 Predictions
Maxime Cressy vs Diego Schwartzman
Head-to-head: Schwartzman 1-0 Cressy
Cressy has been surprisingly disappointing on indoor hard this season. The American’s Challenger run last year on that surface is what enabled him to get his shot on the main tour this season, going 23-10 with three finals in two months. Cressy is 2-7 on indoor hard in 2022, including losses to Dominic Stricker and Constant Lestienne. Schwartzman comes in with even worse form though, winless since the US Open and on a five-match losing streak. The Argentine was far from a threat on indoor hard even at his peak so despite Cressy’s inconsistency I see him as a favorite here.
Prediction: Cressy in 3
Cameron Norrie vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Head-to-head: Norrie 1-0 Kecmanovic
Norrie has largely been on the outside looking in when it came to the ATP Finals picture throughout the year but the Brit’s failure to go on a deep run after the US Open sealed his fate. The 27-year-old has not won back-to-back matches since the last slam, only getting difficult wins over a struggling Aslan Karatsev and clay specialist Pedro Cachin on indoor hard this autumn. Though without a final, Kecmanovic has had a great season with consistent performances at big events which has reflected in the rankings.
The Serb, now sitting in the Top 30, has largely avoided indoor hard though, playing his first indoor tournament only last week in Basel. Kecmanovic defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina but only took one game off Felix Auger-Aliassime. It’s a close call between two solid baseline players but I will lean slightly towards Norrie here as he beat Kecmanovic on indoor hard in their only previous meeting back in 2020.
Prediction: Norrie in 3
Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Sonego
Head-to-head: first meeting
Tiafoe has had a breakout season, with the US Open semifinal run and subsequent Tokyo final placing him in the Top 20. The American has not been able to translate that form on European indoor hard courts, struggling to beat Elias Ymer before winning just three games against Emil Ruusuvuori in Stockholm. Last week, Tiafoe looked more competitive, pushing Hubert Hurkacz to a third set. Sonego started his indoor season with a bang, winning the title in Metz, but the Italian’s form has fizzled out since. Sonego came into Paris qualifying with a four-match losing streak but got wins over Joao Sousa and Tallon Griekspoor to make it to the main draw. With Tiafoe’s performance last week, I am tempted to write off the Stockholm performances and have the American has a pretty strong favorite here.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
