The WTA 1000 in Guadalajara, a new event on the calendar after the city hosted the most electric WTA Finals in recent memory last season, has had the best possible scenario for its inaugural edition. 17 players entered Mexico with the hopes of qualifying for the WTA Finals in Fort Worth with 11 still in play for it at the time of writing. As always, we here at LWOT will preview and predict every match.
WTA Guadalajara Day 4 Predictions
Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya
Head-to-head: Kasatkina 3-0 Kalinskaya
After a couple of down seasons for Kasatkina, the Russian has had her best year since 2018. The 25-year-old not only set a new career-high ranking of No. 9, won WTA titles in San Jose and Granby or reached the semifinals of the US Open, Kasatkina also came out as gay, a major moment in her personal life. The Russian is currently at No. 7 in the Live WTA Race but would need to reach the semifinals to guarantee her spot.
In Kasatkina’s way will be her compatriot Kalinskaya, who ended Barbora Krejcikova’s WTA Finals hopes in the opening round. The 23-year-old has had a largely mediocre year with two third-round runs at Indian Wells and Miami being her highlight. Kasatkina has dominated Kalinskaya in their previous meetings, never losing a set to her countrywoman. Considering the seventh seed’s first-round 6-1 6-2 win over Lin Zhu, an upset here would truly be a surprise.
Prediction: Kasatkina in 2
Maria Sakkari vs Danielle Collins
Head-to-head: Sakkari 1-0 Collins
This sort of match-up is the exact reason that makes this event so exciting. A direct battle for the WTA Finals between Race No. 10 Sakkari and No. 14 Collins, with the loser eliminated from contention. The Greek’s form has been quite poor since her run to the Indian Wells final. She has shown some great desire though, grinding her way through terrible play all the way to the final in Parma. Sakkari did perform very well at the WTA Finals last season, reaching the semifinals. A win here might be enough for the Greek to qualify if other results go her way, though she would have to reach the final to guarantee it.
It is impressive that Collins is still in contention for the WTA Finals, considering this is just her eleventh event of the season. The Australian Open finalist was hampered by injuries throughout the year and would have to go all the way to the final to give herself a chance to become the third American in Fort Worth with the title guaranteeing her participation. Expect a great contest with lots of extended rallies and emotion from Collins. I see the American coming out on top here.
Prediction: Collins in 3
Jelena Ostapenko vs Veronika Kudermetova
Head-to-head: Ostapenko 1-0 Kudermetova
Another direct match-up for the WTA Finals qualification, though not quite with the same loser-goes-home dynamic. Ostapenko, No. 18 in the Race, is the lowest-ranked player remaining in contention. The Latvian would have to win the title in Guadalajara and hope for other results going her way, a rather long shot. Meanwhile, Kudermetova sits in the eighth spot in the Live Race, meaning that she would qualify as things stand. The Russian could lose here and still qualify but will certainly try to go as deep as possible in Guadalajara to strengthen her position. A final here would guarantee Kudermetova a place in Fort Worth.
As we are used to with Ostapenko, the 25-year-old has blown hot and cold throughout the season. The Latvian showed a great level in her Dubai title run, where she defeated Kudermetova in the final, as well as final runs in Eastbourne and Seoul. Kudermetova has not won a title in 2022 but has been incredibly consistent, reaching three WTA finals and seven semifinals. With how dominant Ostapenko looked in her first-round win over Lauren Davis and her previous meeting with Kudermetova, I have to lean toward the Latvian here.
Prediction: Ostapenko in 3
Coco Gauff vs Martina Trevisan
Head-to-head: Gauff 1-1 Trevisan
Gauff has now secured her place at the WTA Finals in Fort Worth with a second-round win over qualifier Elisabetta Cocciaretto. The American will also compete in doubles alongside Jessica Pegula, who is also set to make her WTA Finals debut in singles. Gauff will be the youngest competitor at the year-end championships since Maria Sharapova in 2005. Though the 18-year-old did not win a title this season, she had breakthrough runs at the two of the Slams, reaching the final of the French Open and the quarterfinals of the US Open.
Trevisan got almost two thirds of her points this season in the second half of May, winning Rabat and reaching the semifinals of the French Open, where she won just four games against Gauff. Trevisan was mediocre-to-poor in the rest of the year, never advancing past the quarterfinals of an event. The Italian defeated Nao Hibino and Katerina Siniakova, her first back-to-back wins since July, but her journey likely ends here.
Prediction: Gauff in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
