Wednesday at the US Open will see the final two men’s quarterfinal matches. Frances Tiafoe is coming off a historic win. Will he continue deeper into this tournament? As always, our writers share their thoughts on all the matches with you. Predicting these matches are Shane Black, Damian Kust, Jakub Bobro, and Jim Smith. Who do you think will win?
US Open Men’s Quarterfinal Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner
Shane:
This battle of next-gen superstars will catapult Alcaraz or Sinner into their first career Grand Slam semifinal. Sinner leads their tour-level head-to-head 2-1, including two wins this summer. They hold nearly identical hard court records this season. Throughout the first four rounds of this tournament Alcaraz has been the more in-form player, but his 2:30am round four finish may affect the young Spaniard in this quarterfinal. I expect a great battle between these two, something we should see at Slams for the next decade. I like Sinner to play up to the moment and pull off what will be considered an upset.
Prediction: Sinner in 5
Damian:
Jannik Sinner took their two most recent meetings on clay and grass. Does this mean much for their clash here? It could grant him a bit of a psychological advantage, but it has to be said that while the Italian has been very consistent in getting through the early rounds this year, he’s rarely been a title contender. Not without a reason–his upside simply isn’t as high at the moment as some of the players above him in the rankings. That includes Carlos Alcaraz, who’s got the game to take this match but will need to exorcise some past demons to do it.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5
Jakub:
Two of the brightest young talents in their first meeting on outdoor hard. Sinner has been consistent in getting to the later rounds this season but just hasn’t had enough to be a threat. It might be the same situation here after a difficult battle with Ilya Ivashka. Alcaraz was very impressive against Jenson Brooksby before overcoming the last slam champion in the men’s draw, Marin Cilic. The young Spaniard could become the new World No. 1 after the US Open and I believe he will be a step closer with a win here.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Jim:
This isn’t exactly a “must-win” for Alcaraz, but defeat would certainly sting. After such an impressive start to the year, he’s lost his way slightly and suffered some really damaging defeats, including to Sinner in the fourth round at Wimbledon. Fortunately for the Spaniard, he has looked the more impressive of the two so far in New York. Expect a close and a physical battle, but Alcaraz should have just about enough to get past the Italian.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5
Frances Tiafoe vs Andrey Rublev
Shane:
Rublev and Tiafoe are looking to break their 1-1 head-to-head record which includes a five-set win for the American in the third round of the 2021 US Open. Tiafoe is coming off of the biggest win of his career. I expect him to carry this momentum into this quarterfinal match. Rublev has rounded himself into fine form through four matches in Queens. Not much separates these two, especially in their current forms. I slightly favor Rublev who is in a great position to break his 0-5 Grand Slam quarterfinal record.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Jim:
Is this the moment for Tiafoe? He was exceptional in beating Rafael Nadal and whilst this is going to be a tough match, it’s a winnable one. Rublev has yet to win a Grand Slam quarterfinal (this will be his sixth). The reason he’s lost the previous five is that he struggles to redline his game and really dictate. Provided that he can cope with the pressure of the occasion, Tiafoe, with the crowd certain to be right behind him and his confidence surely sky high, shouldn’t have that problem.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 4
Damian:
Andrey Rublev hasn’t really been at his frightening best this event so far, but he’s done enough to come through. He’ll have to take more risks here as he’s going to face Frances Tiafoe here. The American is coming off the biggest win of his career and has the game to stick around the latter stages of a Major. However, repeating that emotional high won’t be easy and if either one of them here could falter mentally in a tight match, my money’s on Tiafoe. It’s basically a coin toss though.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Jakub:
Tiafoe got his major moment with a big win over Rafael Nadal while Rublev followed up a fifth-set tiebreak victory over Denis Shapovalov with a solid and focused win over Cameron Norrie in straight sets. This is a very close call between two strong baseline players but I will lean towards Rublev here.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
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