The ATP Montreal Masters 1000 is underway, and the draw looks great, with a lot of good matchups starting in the first round. Defending champ and world #1 Daniil Medvedev is surely the man to beat, but Carlos Alcaraz lurks at the other end of the draw. But on day one, the top seeds are still waiting in the wings. Still, there are plenty of entertaining matches to look forward to and, as always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match, including Andy Murray vs Taylor Fritz and Fabio Fognini vs Holger Rune.
ATP Montreal Day 1 Predictions
Stan Wawrinka vs Emil Ruusuvuori
Head-to-head: first meeting
Emil Ruusuvuori is starting to play well again now that he’s back on his favorite surface, getting his best win of the season in Washington with a second-round victory over Hubert Hurkacz. He gets a version of Stan Wawrinka here who has not yet gotten back off the ground, although he’s had some tough draws recently. Maybe he can outhit the Finn, but many have said that about Hurkacz, and Ruusuvuori should take some confidence with him into Montreal.
Prediction: Ruusuvuori in 2
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Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby
Head-to-head: first meeting
Jenson Brooksby is likely still smarting from bowing out early in Washington to Yoshihito Nishioka, but his run to the final in Atlanta should still be fresh in his memory whilst the defeat to the Japanese does not look so bad after Nishioka made the final in D.C., so Brooksby should approach this match with confidence. He has a higher win percentage on hard than Bublik by sixteen percentage points, although Bublik has a title on the surface. Bublik has played decently recently, but Brooksby is surely the better player and should have the edge.
Prediction: Brooksby in 3
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Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech
Head-to-head: first meeting
This is a very close matchup. Both are ranked about the same, and while Arthur Rinderknech has a slightly higher win percentage on hard court, his countryman Adrian Mannarino has a lot more experience. Both are playing average on the surface this year, and overall, although Rinderknech has dipped back into the Challenger tour of late (winning a title, to his credit). Mannarino often sneaks his way into a victory, and I can see him pulling this one out, although there isn’t much separating these two right now.
Prediction: Mannarino in 3
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Denis Shapovalov vs Alex de Minaur
Head-to-head: de Minaur 2-0 Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov has not played well at all of late, most recently being ousted by J.J. Wolf in his first match in Washington. It doesn’t get any easier, with Alex de Minaur just a week off his title in Atlanta, although he suffered a strange defeat to Yoshihito Nishioka in Washington en route to the latter’s incredible run to the final. Though the Canadian here comes across as the better athlete, de Minaur is by far the better and more accomplished hard court player, having won six titles in the surface to Shapovalov’s none.
The Australian has also having won both of their previous matches on a hard court. Shapovalov is dangerous at his best and will no doubt want to impress on home turf, but he’s not looking good right now, and the Aussie is. However, he seems certain to pick back up at some point, and hard court season seems to be the right time, so this could be a decent match. But expect de Minaur to be the player to reach the second round.
Prediction: de Minaur in 3
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