Day 3 at the Mutua Madrid Open on the ATP side is bringing a blend of first- and second-round action. As always, we here at LWOT will preview and predict every match. Who do you think will win?
ATP Madrid Day 3 Predictions
Jenson Brooksby vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Head-to-head: Brooksby 1-0 Bautista Agut
Brooksby has been decent this season, a 12-6 record with highlights including a 250 final in Dallas and Round of 16 runs at Indian Wells and Miami. He has had some success on green clay, such as his Tallahassee Challenger title from last year but his experience on red clay is very limited. The opposite is the case for Bautista Agut, who has played over 450 matches on the surface, though it is not his best. The 34-year-old started the year well, reaching the final of the ATP Cup and winning the title in Doha. The Spaniard is not the most efficient on clay, lacking a deep run on the surfaces in recent years. Despite that and Brooksby’s win over him in Miami this year, I see Bautista Agut as the favorite due to his experience.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 3
Frances Tiafoe vs Cristian Garin
Head-to-head: first meeting
Tiafoe is coming off an amazing, though surely exhausting, week in Estoril, where he reached his fourth ATP final after going three sets in every single match up until the final. His final two victories Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Sebastian Korda were particularly impressive. Garin, on the other hand, has been struggling. The Chilean reached the semifinals of Houston but it has been mostly first-round losses for him in 2022, even on clay. Most recently, Garin lost to Holger Rune in Belgrade and Alejandro Tabilo in Munich, both in straight sets. Tiafoe may be tired but I still see him as a definite favorite over Garin on current form.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 2
Andrey Rublev vs Jack Draper
Head-to-head: first meeting
Despite going out early at the Australian Open and Miami, Rublev is currently No. 6 in the ATP Race, providing great results week in, week out on the tour. The 24-year-old has already won three titles; Marseille, Dubai, and most recently, Belgrade. Draper has set the Challenger Tour ablaze early in the year winning four titles by early April. There are questions about his clay ability though, despite his first-round win against Lorenzo Sonego. The Brit lost Giulio Zeppieri at a Challenger in Rome last week. Last year, he went 1-3 on clay Challengers. Rublev should win this match easily with what he has shown this year.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
Carlos Alcaraz vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 1-0 Basilashvili
Alcaraz is No. 3 in the Race for a reason, his year has been most impressive. The 18-year-old has already won titles in Rio De Janeiro, Miami, and Barcelona and became one of the youngest players ever to break the Top 10. This week, Alcaraz has already helped give the retiring doubles veteran Marc Lopez one of his final victories in a stunning comeback. Basilashvili has been one of the worst players on the main tour this year, getting only two victories outside his run to the Doha final, beating Ilya Ivashka in Munich and Fabio Fognini in the first round here. The Georgian has already lost 13 matches this year and has never been past the first round in Madrid before. Alcaraz has to be the pick here.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
