It should be a blockbuster two days of quarterfinal action at the ATP Indian Wells Masters with four intriguing matches in store. All eight men will doubtless be desperate to book their places in the semifinals and, as ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for all four matches. But who will come out on top in the Californian desert?
ATP Indian Wells Quarterfinal Predictions
Rafael Nadal vs Nick Kyrgios
Head-to-head: Nadal 5-3 Kyrgios
It has been some season for Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard has won every match he has played, picking up three titles including the Australian Open, and he has looked very sharp so far in Indian Wells. He did have to work hard for his first win of the week, but recovered from a 5-2 deficit in the third set against Sebastian Korda to win 6-1 2-6 7-6. He has backed that up with straight-sets victories over Dan Evans and the big-serving Reilly Opelka, though he did need two tiebreaks to get past the American.
Nick Kyrgios, meanwhile, has found some form in the desert, beating Sebastien Baez, Federico Delbonis and Casper Ruud before benefitting from Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal in the fourth round. He has also enjoyed some success against Nadal in the past, winning three of their eight meetings, including in similar conditions in Acapulco three years ago. But as well as Kyrgios has played, with Nadal in this sort of form it is hard to see the Australian having much joy here.
Prediction: Nadal in 2
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 1-0 Norrie
Speaking of in-form Spaniards, Carlos Alcaraz is having quite the tournament at the ATP Indian Wells Masters. The 19th seed, who incidentally has not yet celebrated his 19th birthday, started his campaign with a comprehensive 6-3 6-3 win over Mackenzie McDonald and he has not looked back. He has since notched victories over Roberto Bautista Agut, 6-0 6-2, and Gael Monfils, 7-5 6-1, and comes into this match with real momentum as a result. But it is momentum that he may need.
Cameron Norrie appears to be thriving in the Californian conditions. The Briton won the biggest title of his career, by a distance, in Indian Wells last season and he has played some fine tennis so far this week. His 6-2 6-4 victory over Jenson Brooksby was particularly impressive. But facing Alcaraz looks like a very different challenge. The Spaniard has added real power to his game, particularly off the forehand side, and he should have just about enough to hit through Norrie.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
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Miomir Kecmanovic vs Taylor Fritz
Head-to-head: Fritz 1-0 Kecmanovic
This is a huge opportunity for both of these men to reach the rarefied air of a Masters 1000 semifinal. It would be a first for Miomir Kecmanovic, but the Serbian did make the quarterfinals in Indian Wells in 2019, and has made a very fine start to his week, scoring battling victories over Liam Broady, Marin Cilic, Botic van de Zandschulp and sixth seed Matteo Berrettini. But that does raise the question of how much gas he has left in the tank, mentally and physically.
Particularly as Taylor Fritz has played one match fewer after a first-round bye. The Californian has a very fine record at this tournament and was a semifinalist last season. The conditions suit his powerful game, with the slow pace and relatively high bounce allowing him to time his powerful groundstrokes. He has had the better of Kamil Majchrzak, Jaume Munar and Alex de Minaur so far in Indian Wells, and he should beat Kecmanovic too. Even if he has to go the distance as he did against Munar and de Minaur.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
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Andrey Rublev vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: Rublev 2-2 Dimitrov
Based on the 28 places between them in the rankings, it would be fair to assume that Andrey Rublev is the favourite coming into this match. In fact, he probably is, but Grigor Dimitrov should not be underestimated. The Bulgarian has a wealth of experience behind him now and, if he remains inconsistent, when he is on song he is a very hard man to beat. He has been so far in Indian Wells, beating Jordan Thompson, Alexander Bublik and John Isner, all without dropping a set.
Andrey Rublev has impressed too, however, and he is also yet to drop a set after largely comfortable wins over Dominik Koepfer, Frances Tiafoe and Hubert Hurkacz. Still, this looks like a relatively favourable match for Dimitrov. Rublev is a very solid ball-striker, but he will give Dimitrov rhythm and he won’t take the racquet out of the Bulgarian’s hands. If Dimitrov can continue to scramble as effectively as he has this week, whilst still also getting on the front foot, he might just scrape through here.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 3
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