History will be on the line when Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev meet in the final at the Australian Open, particularly for the Spaniard. Both men will be desperate to get their hands on the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup and it should be a thrilling contest between two of the world’s best. But who will come out on top?
Australian Open Men’s Final Prediction
Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev
Jim: This match will probably be decided by whoever executes better on the day. There isn’t a great deal in it on paper and both are certainly good enough to win. That said, Medvedev has to be accounted the favourite coming into the match. The Russian, at least in recent years, has a notably better hard-court record than Nadal and his game looks better-suited to this surface than the great Spaniard’s. It may well be close, but expect Medvedev to have just about enough.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Steen: Nadal leads the head-to-head 3-1 including a US Open final win in 2019, the Spanish legend hasn’t put together a completely flawless tournament as both Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini challenged him in back to back matches. However he dug deep to get wins in those matches and is undefeated this season.
Medvedev has had his own share of battles to get this far, dealing with the likes of Nick Kyrgios, Maxime Cressy, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and in the semifinals, Stefanos Tsitsipas to reach a second consecutive Australian Open final. Nadal winning this title 12 years (!) after his 2009 triumph would be a huge accomplishment, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me. Medvedev on a hard court is the stronger player these days but Nadal’s experience and drive look to be strong enough to get him over the line.
Prediction: Nadal in 4
Ryan: Hopefully this will be as thrilling as the 2019 US Open final. Nadal has a 3-1 edge in the matchup but Medvedev won their most recent encounter. Nadal has been impressive this tournament, though he has dropped several sets to players who are not the danger of Medvedev. Medvedev has progressed through a difficult draw but in the semis showed why he is so dominant on hard courts. The main factor will be if Medvedev’s backhand can handle Nadal’s forehand which he should be able to, and if so he has all the tools to win his second major.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
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Jack: The rivalry between Nadal and Medvedev has been exceptionally enthralling. Excluding their first meeting, all three have had one player move ahead in the scoreline before an attempted comeback. The 2019 US Open final finished with Rafa eventually winning but the proceeding two matches, both at the ATP Finals, were split evenly with the loser having served for the match (Medvedev served for the match twice in 2019).
In other words, history suggests there is a high likelihood of massive momentum swings. That said, Medvedev is a different player from a couple of years ago and should have a firm command of the baseline. Expect Nadal to come forward a lot, maybe stealing a set or two with this well-timed tactic and spurts of energy, with Medvedev eventually prevailing.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5
Andy: We’ve been through all that and we probably have the biggest final you could pick out of the draw after it was made. I think that it would be fair to say that it is a slight surprise that Nadal has made the final but in reality only Shapovalov has pushed him to a point where he looked uncomfortable. It would be a shock if Medvedev didn’t show up and put him under pressure. The Russian understands the mechanics of tennis so well, his shots always seem to be calculated in the best way to win the point, whether that’s a big second serve, standing super far behind the baseline or really going for the lines. There will be a lot of long rallies here and you have to fancy that it will play into Medvedev’s hands eventually.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5
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