After a thrilling week of tennis at the ATP Indian Wells Masters, just four men remain in contention for the title in the Californian desert. It is not the line-up anyone would have predicted at the start of the tournament, with every top-ten star having already fallen by the wayside, but there should be plenty of entertaining tennis all the same. But who will book their place in Sunday’s final?
ATP Indian Wells Semifinal Predictions
Grigor Dimitrov vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: Norrie 1-0 Dimitrov
2021 has been the best season of Cameron Norrie’s career, by a distance, and the Briton’s efforts this week will see him claim the British #1 ranking for the first time, regardless of what happens in this match. He started his campaign at the ATP Indian Wells Masters by outlasting Tennys Sandgren to win 6-4 5-7 6-0 and he backed that up with a battling three-set win over Roberto Bautista Agut before finding a way through Tommy Paul, again in three sets.
He followed that up with a 6-0 6-2 demolition of Diego Schwartzman that must surely rank amongst the finest wins of his career. He will now be hoping to continue his charge against the resurgent Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian’s season has been badly disrupted by injuries, but he has shown flashes of brilliance and this week he has been able to sustain a high level of tennis, accounting for Daniel Altmaier and Reilly Opelka in comprehensive fashion to reach the quarterfinals.
There, he stunned recent-US Open champion Daniil Medvedev, rallying from a set and a break down to all-but end the Russian’s hopes of finishing the year as world #1. That win set up a semifinal clash with the in-form Hubert Hurkacz, who won the other leg of the traditional Sunshine Double in Miami in the spring. But Dimitrov, showing a mental toughness that he has not always been able to rely on, edged the Pole out in a third-set tiebreak to reach his first Masters 1000 semifinal since 2019 in Bercy.
Neither man possesses the sort of power to hit opponents off the court, particularly in such slow, gritty conditions. But both cover the court superbly, with Dimitrov displaying scarcely believable athleticism at times this year. There is a question mark over just how much Dimitrov has left in the tank, however, and this does not look like a particularly good match-up for the Bulgarian, whose backhand may well be vulnerable in the cross-court exchanges against the left-hander. It may well go the distance, but expect Norrie to have just enough.
Prediction: Norrie in 3
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Taylor Fritz vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Head-to-head: Fritz 2-1 Basilashvili
This run has felt a long-time coming for Taylor Fritz. The American has put together some very impressive stretches over the last couple of years without quite managing to find his best tennis when it matters most. But, playing on home turf this week, the Californian has looked assured in making his way through the draw. After a first-round bye, he raced into the quarterfinals on the back of straight-sets wins over Brandon Nakashima, Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner.
Waiting for him there was Alexander Zverev. The German, who remains under a cloud of controversy, had been striking the ball with considerable authority in reaching the last eight and he pushed Fritz right to the brink. But the American held firm, saving match points in the third set as he dug out a 4-6 6-3 7-6 to reach the first Masters semifinal of his career. Now his task will be to get past another played mired in off-court controversy in Nikoloz Basilashvili.
The Georgian opened his campaign at the ATP Indian Wells Masters with a comfortable straight-sets win over Christopher Eubanks and he then edged out Albert Ramos Vinolas in three sets to set up a fourth-round clash with Karen Khachanov. He won that match 6-4 7-6 to reach his eighth tour-level quarterfinal this season. He looked to be in for a difficult day up against Stefanos Tsitsipas, but his bludgeoning groundstrokes kept the Greek on the back foot for much of the match as he won 6-4 2-6 6-4.
Long baseline rallies will probably be the order of the day here. Neither man is particularly comfortable moving forward, but both possess enough power to hurt opponents from the back of the court. Fritz should just about have the advantage consistency, however, with Basilashvili’s gung-ho approach not always to his advantage. The American is also the better server of the two. In a match as close as this, that might just prove decisive.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
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