We have arrived at the last two women standing. Both Belinda Bencic and Marketa Vondrousova are guaranteed a spot on the podium at the Tokyo Olympics, but only one will receive the Gold Medal. The Olympics might not be the most important event on the tennis calendar, but it definitely has the coolest trophy. Our writers share their thoughts on this upcoming matchup. We also predict the Bronze Medal match. Predicting this match are Jim Smith, Anurag Sahay, Jack Edward, Ryan Schick, and Jakub Bobro. Who do you think will take home the Gold?
Tokyo Olympics Gold Medal Match Predictions
Belinda Bencic vs Marketa Vondrousova
Jim:
There should be relatively little between this pair. Neither has yet won one of the sport’s biggest titles, but both have plenty of experience of big matches. They also have similar strengths, with both clean ball-strikers who rely principally on their variety and solid groundstrokes rather than overwhelming power. But Vondrousova has looked marginally the sharper of the two, with her semifinal win over Elina Svitolina particularly impressive. She also won their only previous match, which was contested in similar conditions in Miami earlier this season. Expect this match to go the distance, but for it to be the Czech who ends it in possession of a Gold Medal.
Prediction: Vondrousova in 3
Anurag:
The Swiss was pushed to the wall by Rybakina’s clean-hitting before her clever game emerged triumphant. Rybakina lived up to her reputation by firing a humongous 106 winners in five matches–29 against Bencic, including 14 aces–but could not turn that into a match-winning statistic. Bencic showed her mental strength in saving 11 break points. The Swiss has certainly found her mojo following a mediocre season. She has already booked her country its fifth medal in tennis in history, but will want to go for the maximum.
Marketa Vondrousova has landed a Gold Medal match from nowhere, her upset of Osaka proving a huge confidence booster. The less aggressive of the two women, Vondrousova will look to outplay Bencic with her topspin forehand, eliciting errors from the Swiss and not allowing her to dictate the rallies. Bencic, on the other hand, likes to shorten the rallies and picks the ball on the rise (no wonder she idolizes Roger Federer).
I expect the final to go down to the wire, but it is really going to be a battle of nerves and one of contrasting styles. Vondrousova is the more disciplined of the two, especially on the forehand wing, and while she got the better of Bencic at the Miami Open, I predict the latter to survive the test.
Prediction: Bencic in 3
Jack:
Playing the tennis of her life, Belinda Bencic has given herself a chance at Gold in both the singles and doubles. It’s good to see her in the running for another big title after a couple of years of relatively unremarkable results. Naomi Osaka’s conqueror, Marketa Vondrousova, is also playing some of her best tennis–if she continues to play at such a high level, she could unpick the raw power Bencic possesses. I’m expecting big momentum swings but I think the 2019 French Open finalist will have the consistency to take home the Gold.
Prediction: Vondrousova in 3
Ryan:
The way this tournament has been, player form, strength on hard court, and experience have all gone out the window. Bencic does have the experience advantage and has played well in Tokyo. Vondrousova has simply been ridiculous this week after barely making the tournament, highlighted by a 6-3 6-1 semifinal thrashing of fourth seed Elina Svitolina. At the end of the day, Vondrousova simply looks like she is not going to lose here and will take the Gold Medal.
Prediction: Vondrousova in 3
Jakub:
The ninth seed surprised some by winning her difficult opener over Jessica Pegula in straight sets. Bencic followed it up with an easier win over Misaki Doi. Since then, she has won three difficult three-set matches over Barbora Krejcikova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and Elena Rybakina, the last being a true drama with Rybakina wasting a lot of chances.
Her Gold Medal match opponent has been dubbed the villain of the tournament by some local fans, as Vondrousova’s “dodgy” use of protected ranking took her higher-ranked countrywoman Karolina Muchova out of the Olympics. The Czech then ended the career of Kiki Bertens in the first round before taking out home favorite Naomi Osaka in the third round. Vondrousova then advanced after Paula Badosa’s mid-match retirement due to heat stroke and beat Elina Svitolina 6-3 6-1 in the semifinals.
Vondrousova won their only previous meeting 6-4 in the third at Miami this year. Despite her dominant run through the draw, the resilience Bencic has shown should still make her the favorite.
Prediction: Bencic in 3
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