There has been plenty of thrilling tennis so far at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters and the entertainment should continue on day five with eight intriguing third-round matches on the slate in Monaco. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule, including Grigor Dimitrov vs Rafael Nadal. But who will book their place in the quarterfinals?
ATP Monte Carlo Masters Day Five Predictions
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Cristian Garin
Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 1-1 Garin
This should be some match. Stefanos Tsitsipas has not always been able to find his best tennis this season, but he has had some very fine days in 2021 and his 6-3 6-4 win over Australian Open semifinalist Aslan Karatsev in his opener at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters surely ranks amongst them. But Cristian Garin too has impressed so far in Monte Carlo, with the Chilean picking up straight-sets wins over Toni Nadal’s new charge Felix Auger-Aliassime and John Millman of Australia.
This will be their third meeting, with Garin claiming a narrow win in the first, which came back in 2018 at a Challenger in Guadeloupe, a defeat Tsitsipas avenged by winning a three-set thriller last season in Hamburg. One suspects that this match will be equally close, with both amongst the most effective clay-courters in the men’s game. But Tsitsipas has that much more power than the Chilean and is also the better judge of when to use it. Expect that to give him a narrow, but decisive, advantage.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
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Novak Djokovic vs Dan Evans
Head-to-head: first meeting
Jannik Sinner may not have been at his best, but Novak Djokovic’s 6-4 6-2 win over the Italian was nonetheless an undeniable statement of intent from the world #1. He will likely have to spend the next few weeks playing second fiddle to Nadal, with the great Spaniard still the favourite every time he steps on to a clay court, but Djokovic has proven himself a force to be reckoned with in his own right on the clay and his win over Sinner was another reminder of that.
Dan Evans has not enjoyed quite as much success on the terre battue as the Serbian, but he is the midst of a very good week at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters, having beaten Dusan Lajovic, who is typically at his best on the clay, and Miami champion Hubert Hurkacz. But Evans game is nonetheless better suited to quicker surfaces and it is hard to see how he will be able to consistently hurt a player of Djokovic’s quality on the slow clay in Monte Carlo.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
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Fabio Fognini vs Filip Krajinovic
Head-to-head: Krajinovic 2-1 Fognini
It is somewhat surprising that Filip Krajinovic leads this head-to-head, even accounting for Fabio Fognini’s often combustible personality. More surprising still is that in their only previous meeting on clay at tour-level, Fognini won just four games. The level of his tennis this week rather suggests that he will be more competitive when their clay-court rivalry is renewed, with the Italian having dismissed Miomir Kecmanovic and Jordan Thompson in short order so far at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters.
That said, Krajinovic is capable enough on the red dirt and the Serbian has looked sharp in beating Nikoloz Basilashvili, although the Georgian did retire only two games into the second set, and Juan Ignacio Londero. However, this does not look like a good matchup for Krajinovic, history notwithstanding. Fognini possesses the greater weight of shot and is also arguably the more natural mover on this surface. If he is focused, he should prove too strong for Krajinovic.
Prediction: Fognini in 2
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Andrey Rublev vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Head-to-head: Bautista Agut 3-2 Rublev
This will be an important match for both men. Andrey Rublev has enjoyed a very good start to the season, but he has arguably failed to deliver when it has mattered most. His performance in the Australian Open quarterfinals will surely have been a disappointment to him, and he then lost out in the semifinals in Dubai and Miami, both times at the hands of players he may well feel he should have beaten. But he did play well in his opener in Monte Carlo, beating Salvatore Caruso 6-3 6-2.
Roberto Bautista Agut, meanwhile, struggled in the early weeks of the season, but has returned to some form in recent weeks, reaching the final in Doha, where he beat Rublev in the last eight, and the last four in Miami. So far at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters, he has gotten the better of Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul. But although he is a considerably more adept clay-courter than the American duo, Bautista Agut is not at his best on the surface. Rublev should ultimately be able to overpower the Spaniard.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
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