Day 10 at the Australian Open sees the quarterfinal rounds wrap up on Wednesday. Semifinal hopefuls will compete in two men’s and two women’s quarterfinal matches, and we’re predicting all four of the matches for you. Both men’s matches are in this article, while the women’s quarterfinal matches are in a second article. Predicting these matches are Jim Smith, Pablo Mosquera, Harsh Bhoot, Damian Kust, and Fraser Learmonth.
Australian Open Day 10 Men’s Quarterfinal Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Daniil Medvedev
Jim:
The list of players who can hit through Daniil Medvedev is not a long one, but Andrey Rublev has done enough over the past few weeks to suggest that his name belongs on it. Medvedev is good enough to make this difficult for his countryman, and he will surely look to keep the ball out of Rublev’s hitting zone. But with Rublev playing this well, that is far easier said than it is done.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Pablo:
Technically, Medvedev has Rublev’s number. However, I wouldn’t read too much into the lopsided 4-0 head-to-head. Medvedev used to win because Rublev didn’t have enough patience during baseline rallies. But at last year’s US Open quarterfinal, Rublev proved he could go toe-to-toe with his countryman. While both remain undefeated this campaign, Rublev has caused a greater impression so far in Melbourne. Expect the younger Russian to prevail this time around in a grueling battle.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Harsh:
Sadly, one of these won’t be progressing further because both these players deserve to go ahead on form. Andrey Rublev has been in red hot form for some time now and is showing no signs of stopping. Unfortunately for him, he faces Daniil Medvedev, who has stopped him thrice before without even dropping a set. Rublev’s power hitting fits perfectly into Medvedev’s gamestyle and he’s able to frustrate Rublev more often than not. Expect a similar result but Rublev should take this to the distance as he’s playing just too confidently to bow out in straight sets.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5
Damian:
Andrey Rublev hasn’t been successful in this matchup before, not even winning a single set. However, everything seems to suggest that it might be a lot closer this time around than, for example, at the same stage of last year’s US Open. Rublev showed his improved rally tolerance then and barely missed out on winning two of the tie-breaks. Daniil Medvedev also had some fitness issues in the third round against Filip Krajinovic. The faster conditions in Melbourne should allow Rublev to make it really close and punch his way through Medvedev a lot more efficiently. This should be a classic but I’ll take the fantastic court coverage and counter-punching of Medvedev to prevail in a tight five-setter.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5
Fraser:
Two best friends and fellow countrymen will fight for a place in the semifinals in what should be an epic battle. Rublev hits a tennis ball about as hard as humanly possible. Medvedev’s game often relies on making his opponent play one too many shots as he is a defensive wall that is almost impossible to break through. Given the form and style of these two Russian tennis maestros, this match is very much a case of unstoppable force meets immovable object. On this occassion I’m taking the unstoppable force. Rublev has been simply phenomenal and I think the ridiculous forehand is enough to blow even Medvedev off a court when it’s firing.
Prediction: Rublev in 4
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Rafael Nadal vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Jim:
For all the concerns around Rafael Nadal’s back injury coming into the tournament, the Spaniard has been in imperious form so far in Melbourne. Stefanos Tsitsipas is a good enough player to give him a real test, particularly on a surface that is playing this quickly, but Nadal is one of the most adept problem solvers in the men’s game and should be able to find a way past the Greek.
Prediction: Nadal in 4
Damian:
Everyone seemed to expect Rafael Nadal to struggle against Fabio Fognini but the match ended up not that memorable. The Spaniard has been serving slower than usual in Melbourne, presumably trying to preserve his lightly-injured back. Stefanos Tsitsipas’s return is definitely not his forte, but the Greek will be ready to attack Nadal’s weaker serves, which should force him to commit to it like he usually does. That should give us a decent indication of whether the back is a really serious issue or not. As it stands now, I gotta take Tsitsipas to play up to the quickness of the court and prevail by playing an all-court, attacking style.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 5
Pablo:
The No. 2 seed is looking scary good despite the back stiffness that forced him to skip the ATP Cup. He has not been tested though, because none of his first three opponents had weapons to trouble him and Fabio Fognini didn’t show up on Monday. Ever since being demolished by Nadal in the 2019 Australian Open semifinal, Tsitsipas has always found a way to make it a close contest versus the Spaniard. The 2009 champion, who has won a jaw-dropping 33 straight sets at Majors, is my pick to advance, but he’ll drop his first set of the tournament, so he’ll fall just shy of Roger Federer’s all-time record of 36.
Prediction: Nadal in 4
Harsh:
It’s the business end of a Grand Slam when you see such a matchup. Nadal is on a roll so far, having won every set contested, but Tsitsipas should make it a little tougher for the Spaniard. Matchup wise, Nadal is not an opponent Tsitsipas would like to face a lot as his high loopy forehand crosscourt is a menace to the Greek’s backhand. Tsitsipas has done well in recent contests to stretch Nadal, but the crosscourt forehand is such a sureshot tactic employed by Nadal at clutch moments that it’s unlikely Nadal will lose. Expect Tsitsipas to grab a set by playing his aggressive brand of tennis but Nadal should eventually wrestle control and move on.
Prediction: Nadal in 4
Fraser:
What a treat this match should be. Neither player is at their best on hard courts but both are still among the best in the world. Tsitsipas has upset Nadal before and will know the Spaniard is vulnerable on the quicker courts of Melbourne. Nadal struggles to put as much work on his forehand when the ball is coming through, and Tsitsipas must look to take advantage of that if he is to have a chance. If Nadal’s back is improved and he can serve to the best of his abilities, this match will be close and a great watch. If he can’t Tsitsipas should win easily enough. I’m backing the Spaniard to show up and treat us to a five set epic that he just wins because he is so physically impressive.
Prediction: Nadal in 5
Main Photo from Getty.
