As Caroline Wozniacki prepares to face Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals of the French Open, the Dane finds herself in an unfamiliar position: with a legitimate chance to win her first career Grand Slam title. Is it finally her time? Let’s explore this.
Wozniacki has never said success on clay
This is Wozniacki’s 10th career appearance at Roland Garros. In her previous nine appearances, she’s only gone past the third round once, in 2010. To further underscore the improbability of what she’s doing, the Dane had beaten ONE top 30 player in career in Paris: Flavia Pennetta in the 4th Round of that 2010 quarterfinal run. Her win over 2009 French Open champion (and No. 8 seed) Svetlana Kuznetsova this year was her second.
Of Wozniacki’s 25 career titles and 45 career finals, only four times has she lifted the winners trophy and five times has she taken the runner-up prize with dirt under her feet. Before reaching the final in Stuttgart in 2015, it had been almost four years since the Dane reached the final stage of a clay-court event. With all of those statistics working against her, it’s safe to say not even Wozniacki herself could have seen this opportunity coming.
The good news for Wozniacki is the field is wide-open
In previous years, Wozniacki’s success would not have garnered much notice, but with the absence of Serena Williams, Victoria Azarenka, and Maria Sharapova, no one has established themselves as the clear favorite. In her half, Ostapenko is a brilliant young talent and has already defeated Wozniacki this year in Charleston, blasting 51 winners in a straight sets win, but she’s only 19 and it’s unclear how she will handle the moment. Kristina Mladenovic has excited the crowds in Paris, winning three straight three-set matches, but she’s only made one Major quarterfinal, two years ago at the US Open. Timea Bacsinszky is the most accomplished player left in the top half, sporting a 13-2 record at Roland Garros, but fortunately for the Dane, the Swiss star cannot overpower her.
The other half has the real title contenders in Simona Halep, Elina Svitolina, and Karolina Pliskova, as well as dark horse Caroline Garcia. While all four of those may be able to overpower Wozniacki, they may also be fatigued from beating each other up on their way to the final. The Dane is theoretically in the easier half and if she were to reach the championship match, she should be fresh when compared to her opponent.
Wozniacki is fortunate to be where she is
Often overlooked in Wozniacki’s resurgence is that she nearly fell out of the Top 100 at Flushing Meadows last year. Playing in her favorite Major, the Dane faced American qualifier Taylor Townsend. After dropping the first set 6-4, Wozniacki came back to take the second 6-3, but was two games away from departing when she survived 6-4 in the decider.
That sparked a run to her fifth career semifinal in New York with wins over Kuznetsova, Monica Niculescu, Madison Keys, and Anastasija Sevastova before losing to eventual champion Angelique Kerber in the last four. While it wasn’t necessarily the outcome she was looking for, if it wasn’t for that comeback against Townsend on the new Grandstand court, Wozniacki almost certainly wouldn’t be in the position she’s in now.
For all of her recent success, Wozniacki still struggles in the big moments
It’s clear Wozniacki will return to the Top 10 and with the state of the WTA Tour, it’s not inconceivable she could return to the Top 5. However, the Dane still has not been able to win any of her important finals. She lost in Doha to Pliskova, Dubai to Svitolina, and Miami to Johanna Konta already this year. Throw in her two US Open finals losses to Serena Williams and Kim Clijsters, as well as four other Major semifinal losses, and it’s evident the Dane still struggles in the big moments at the end of tournaments, which is what made her gutty victory over Kuznetsova all the more surprising.
In closing, Wozniacki is playing as well as she ever had on clay, the draw has opened up nicely for her, and she’s in the right part of the draw. While she’s still not amongst the favorites and would be an underdog in Saturday’s final, her appearance in the championship match would suggest that maybe destiny is finally on her side. Her fans have certainly waited long enough.
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