World #1 Ashleigh Barty and fifth seed Petra Kvitova lost their bid for a spot in the finals. An aggressive Alison Riske ended Czech superstar Petra Kvitova’s quest for a third Wuhan Open title. Meanwhile, 2018 champion Aryna Sabalenka moved one step closer to defending her title. But will she be able to get the better of the unseeded and virtually unnoticed Riske, who has quietly made her way to the finals of this WTA Premier 5 tournament?
Wuhan Open Final Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka vs Alison Riske
Head to head: Sabalenka 2-0 Riske
Sabalenka has has dropped just a single set in reaching the finals of both the singles and doubles in Wuhan. Sabalenka has been playing rock-solid, returning to the form which propelled her to a top 10 ranking. While the Sabalenka game is hallmarked by a go for broke style, the Belarusian has reigned in the double faults. Dropping to the number two spot in players with the most double faults, Sabalenka has thrown in 18 double faults throughout the tournament.
In fact, Ashleigh Barty had double the number of Sabalenka’s double faults in their semifinal bout. Sabalenka isn’t giving away free points on an errant serve. Rather, the defending champion landed 27 aces. The 21-year-old shows no signs of fatigue, a common factor in late stages of a tournament. Instead, bolstered by her doubles success alongside Elise Mertens, the Belarussian seems invigorated. Running down shots and ending points at the net has proven successful. With one match between Sabalenka and the title, a title defense seems likely.
Riske was perhaps the most unnoticed player in Wuhan. It’s somewhat surprising in that the American has had some solid results in 2019 – starting with a run to the finals in Shenzhen, where she fell to Sabalenka to her first 2019 title at ‘S-Hertogenbosch. Of course, the World #35 suffered 10 first round losses along the way. Seems confidence was the missing ingredient. Finally, Riske has belief and realizes that she has the weapons to win.
Riske extended her head to head lead over Kvitova 2-1 after upsetting the Czech superstar in the semis. of 16, eighth seed Wang Qiang claimed a mere three games in a stunning upset. The quarterfinal bout against third seed Elina Svitolina saw Riske give up just four games. After starting with back-to-back three set matches, it’s obvious the American’s game improved throughout the week.
The Way to the Win
The Wuhan final will have two hard hitters battle with powerful, court opening shots. Each a solid doubles player, Riske and Sabalenka won’t shy away from ending points at the net. Dictating play and controlling the errors will be paramount.
For Riske to earn her first WTA Premier title, maintaining belief is critical. Riske sees her opportunities in real time when she’s playing with confidence. Whether it’s a net smothering volley or a backhand down the line, the strategy becomes clear for the American. Riske will benefit by maintaining a high first serve percentage. While aces and double faults don’t play a large role in the American’s game, the weaker second serve is an opening she’ll want to avoid.
For Sabalenka to successfully defend her Wuhan title, the unforced error count needs to stay in check. The Belarussian has plenty of power and doesn’t need to go for too much too soon. Sabalenka has managed her serve quite nicely. The aces continue to come off Sabalenka’s racquet. And, she’s done a great job minimizing the double faults. Indeed, Sabalenka has been playing powerful, clean tennis. That makes her nearly undefeatable.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
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