Just two men remain standing at the St Petersburg Open. Home favorite Daniil Medvedev, playing in his fifth consecutive final, will meet Croatia’s Borna Coric, who has endured a difficult season largely due to injuries, but will hope that victory in Russia’s second city can serve as a springboard for a late-season push. But who will walk away with the title after Sunday’s showpiece final?
ATP St Petersburg Open Final Prediction
Daniil Medvedev vs Borna Coric
Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-4 Coric
Medvedev showed remarkable resilience and patience to see off Belarusian qualifier Egor Gerasimov 7-5 7-5 to progress to his fifth consecutive tour-level final. The Russian’s incredible run of form is showing no signs of abating and he has now won an astonishing 23 of his last 26 matches since the beginning of the summer hard-court swing in North America. His three defeats all came in finals as he fell to an inspired Nick Kyrgios in Washington and Rafael Nadal in Montreal and at the US Open – the latter a New York classic.
The 23-year-old dampened any fears that he would be unfit for a title-winning run this week after a brutal couple of months. He shook off the niggling injuries that he suffered post-US Open and took care of business in his three matches in front a vociferous crowd at the St Petersburg Open. The man from Moscow has risen as high as world #4 following his dream summer and has joined Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer in booking his place at the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals in London.
Coric will stand in the way of the top seed and his third title in as many months. The 22-year-old was heralded as the standout youngster in the men’s game following his stunning win over Rafael Nadal in Basel in 2014 whilst he was still a teenager. Since then Coric has redefined his game and made great strides in his ranking ever since his breakthrough on the main tour, but he has been surpassed by the likes of Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Medvedev himself.
Indeed, the Croat has struggled to reproduce the thrills of his career-best season of 2018 when he reached the semifinals in Indian Wells and the final in Shanghai, where he beat Federer in the semifinals in straight-sets. He also won the biggest title of his fledgling career at the Halle Open when he beat Federer in the final, and also reached the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time at the US Open.
But Coric has managed only a disappointing 26-15 win-loss record so far this season. He retired hurt in his unsuccessful title defense in Halle in the quarterfinals and pulled out of Wimbledon altogether due to an abdominal issue. He also withdrew from the US Open after just one round. But he appears to be fit and firing again and he has battled gamely so far at the St Petersburg Open, beating Marton Fucsovics, Casper Ruud and Joao Sousa, all after going the distance.
Who will win?
Coric has so far proven to be the comeback King this week, dropping the first set in each of his three matches before winning in three sets. The Croatian has also been a thorn in Medvedev’s side so far in the Russian’s career having won their last three meetings on the bounce and taking a commanding lead in their head-to-head as a result. However, Medvedev brings an enormous amount of confidence and form from New York which will surely aid his cause.
Coric is also yet to win hard-court title, whereas Medvedev has notched two titles already this season on that surface, including indoors in Sofia in February. Both Coric and Medvedev are very talented athletes with impressive defensive qualities. For a man of Medvedev’s stature it is perhaps slightly surprising he is such a battling baseliner who will plug away all day regardless of the surface. But his height also helps him to overpower opponents and expect him to do just that to Coric.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
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