The WTA Rome tournament third round continues on Sunday. The WTA Tour stop in Rome just got a lot more interesting, with top seed Aryna Sabalenka getting knocked out of the tournament. It’s another opportunity for a lower-ranked player to get a huge points pickup, and for other players to make considerable rankings gains as well, just before the French Open. Women’s tennis feels very balanced and unpredictable right now, so it makes betting on women’s matches that much more interesting. LWOS has our best bets for four matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Rome
Osaka – Shnaider: Time 8:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
A lot of these third-round matches have tremendous potential, and only one of them has any kind of rivalry to speak of. Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider is one such match, but that just means it has the potential to start one. Both of these ladies are relatively young. In fact, it’s Osaka that is the senior stateswoman here. While she hasn’t played in as many matches lately, it’s Shnaider with all the experience on clay. She had a 2022 campaign in which she went 46-11 on clay.
Best Bet to Make
You might be surprised to learn that Osaka is the underdog on the books. If you read any of the above, it might be less of a surprise, but at least you understand why. The books see Shnaider’s experience on clay as a plus. Her 2022 campaign might have a lot of ITF-level events on it, but she won three titles at that level, and finished her year with a WTA Montevideo tournament title after reaching back-to-back quarterfinals in Buenos Aires and Colina. Both of those were WTA-level events. I like this one going under 21.5 games.
That being said, betting Under 21.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Under 21.5 games @1.98 @1xBet
Eala – Rybakina: Time 10:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
There are a few names that have dominated the WTA so far in 2026. Those names are Aryna Sabalenka, Mirra Andreeva, and Elena Rybakina. Rybakina enters Rome with a desire to make up for her third-round exit here last year to Bianca Andreescu. Rybakina also has two titles, including one major in 2026. Alexandra Eala has yet to make a final in 2026; her semifinal loss to Xinyu Wang in Auckland as a favorite is the closest she’s come.
Best Bet to Make
Alexandra Eala has turned some impressive underdog odds into victories. I remember picking her in an upset where she was a double-digit underdog a few times last year, and they cashed. I don’t feel that confident this year. She simply hasn’t been good enough on clay. She’s lost to people like Elise Mertens, Leylah Fernandez, and Jelena Ostapenko on clay. She’s not beating Rybakina, who has her own title on clay. I like Rybakina wining by a solid spread.
That being said, betting on Rybakina +6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Rybakina +6.5 games @1.97 @1xBet
Siegemund – Pliskova: Time 13:00 EST
H2H: 0-1
Laura Siegemund has been tested on clay against Karolina Pliskova, and she came out with the 2017 three-set quarterfinal victory in Stuttgart. Pliskova would get her win back in 2020 at the Australian Open, but that was the last time these two met. A good deal has transpired since 2020, but this match is destined to be competitive. Siegemund has never gone past the third round here in Rome, but Pliskova has played three finals, a quarterfinal, and has one title among other finishes here. She’s also 8-2 on clay this year, while Siegemund is 4-2.
Best Bet to Make
Pliskova is the favorite, but not by very much. The strategy on this one is to keep it simple. There’s no reason to play the over/under or correct score game when the odds are solid enough to make a good return regardless of your pick. I think Pliskova is ultimately going to be the victor here, and you can get her at 1.92 on Pinnacle. If you decide to go with Siegemund, she goes at 1.99 on the same site. You can’t go wrong either way.
That being said, betting on Pliskova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pliskova winning @1.92 @Pinnacle
Cocciaretto – Swiatek: Time 13:00 EST
H2H: 0-1
There’s no doubt that Elisabetta Cocciaretto is a very solid clay player with a solid resume. There’s also no doubt that Iga Swiatek is a much better clay player with an incredible resume. Swiatek is 161-25 on clay in her career, including three titles here in Rome. It’s true that Swiatek hasn’t been her best this year, not even reaching a final on clay. Rome is a perfect place for her to get it together and start a turnaround. That said, Cocciaretto is good enough to beat her if Swiatek doesn’t take this seriously.
Best Bet to Make
Cocciaretto can win this match. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, it’s just very unlikely. Rome is a place where Swiatek has traditionally done very well. I would expect her to use this tournament to assert her abilities on the surface as a way to remind the top players that she’s still around. Swiatek will need to play this one straight, but it shouldn’t be a very difficult match for her. Cocciaretto only won a single game when they met in 2025. This one should be similar.
That being said, betting on Swiatek +6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Swiatek +6.5 games @1.9 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
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The WTA Rome third round continues on Sunday. LWOS has our best bets for four matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
