The WTA Rome tournament third round continues on Sunday. The WTA Tour stop in Rome just got a lot more interesting, with top seed Aryna Sabalenka getting knocked out of the tournament. It’s another opportunity for a lower-ranked player to get a huge points pickup, and for other players to make considerable rankings gains as well, just before the French Open. Women’s tennis feels very balanced and unpredictable right now, so it makes betting on women’s matches that much more interesting. LWOS has our best bets for four matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Rome
Keys – Bartunkova: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Madison Keys had not played a single WTA Tour match since Charleston when she came to Rome. She was able to beat fellow American Peyton Stearns in the second round to advance. Keys is physically fresh and should probably benefit from getting a good three-set battle against Stearns. If she wanted to play herself back into form, getting three sets in her first match should help her. Nikola Bartunkova was a lucky loser. She lost in the qualifying rounds but got into the main draw when Victoria Mboko fell ill and withdrew from the tournament before her first match. Bartunkova took advantage by beating Tyra Grant.
Best Bet to Make
Madison Keys is a much better player than Nikola Bartunkova, and it’s worth pointing out that Madison Keys has reached the semifinals of the French Open before. She can play on clay. Bartunkova did well to win her first match as a lucky loser, but Tyra Grant is outside the top 150, so it’s not as though Bartunkova defeated an elite player. Keys will be a far tougher opponent for Bartunkova and should be able to win the match convincingly.
That being said, betting on Keys winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Keys winning 2:0 @1.91 @Coral
Svitolina – Baptiste: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 1–1
This match is highly interesting. Hailey Baptiste is one of the rising young players on the WTA Tour. She is now in the top 25 after her run in Madrid, which included a win over Aryna Sabalenka in which she saved six match points. Baptiste is establishing herself as a real fighter. She was down a break in the third set against Simona Waltert on Friday but rallied to win the match, taking the last four games to advance. Elina Svitolina is a proven top-10 player, so Baptiste faces another tough challenge. Will the American be able to score another upset?
Best Bet to Make
This match could easily go three sets, given how well Hailey Baptiste competes. However, Baptiste is not dominating her opponents. Anything but. She is actually falling behind opponents but is finding a way to rally and turn things around. That’s a dangerous habit and a risky pattern to keep following. At some point, Baptiste starting slowly and falling behind is going to work against her. Svitolina is a strong enough opponent to make Baptiste pay the price. Your bet should be on Svitolina in some form.
That being said, betting on Svitolina winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Svitolina winning 2:0 @2.17 @Unibet
Samsonova – Potapova: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 1-2
Liudmila Samsonova scored a solid second-round win over Ann Li to advance in Rome. Samsonova has been inconsistent in recent weeks but is showing some resilience. She’s a top-25 player who is trying to climb upward on tour along with other players near her in the rankings. Can she change the direction of her season? She would make a statement if she wins this match, because her opponent is already making a statement. Anastasia Potapova was near 100 in the world rankings not that long ago, but with eight wins in her last nine matches, plus a run to the Linz final as well, Potapova has earned herself a seeded spot at the French Open. She is red-hot right now.
Best Bet to Make
It is really hard to bet against the in-form Potapova right now. The average odds have her priced at 1.56 to win, but you can get her for 1.61 at Pinnacle. We usually don’t call anything under 1.60 a value bet, so the Potapova price inching just above it enables us to settle for the moneyline here. It’s not a spectacular price, but it’s good enough, and we think it’s definitely going to be a winning bet. Samsonova does not look like the player who is going to stop Potapova’s hot streak. It’s going to take someone better to do that.
That being said, betting on Potapova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Potapova winning @1.61 @Pinnacle
Pegula – Masarova: Time 7:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Jessica Pegula lost decisively to Marta Kostyuk in Madrid, but that loss looked a lot better when Kostyuk then went all the way and won the Madrid championship. Pegula bounced back in Rome by winning her first match of the tournament against Zeynep Sonmez. Pegula is one of the players who hopes to take advantage of the chaos on the WTA Tour right now. She’s the No. 5 seed and would love to gain ground on Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff in an upward push for a higher ranking. Her opponent here is Rebeka Masarova. The Swiss just upset Leylah Fernandez. Masarova is ranked nearly 130 spots lower than Fernandez but was able to win in three sets to advance in Rome.
Best Bet to Make
It is not an incredible price, but it’s a decent one: You can get Pegula winning in straight sets at 1.60 at 1xBet. Some people will ask why not go with a game spread instead of straight sets. That’s a very good question. Here’s the answer: Pegula -4.5 games is priced at 1.58. Why go with a medium game spread when you can get a slightly better price for straight sets? If Pegula wins 6-4, 7-5, you would lose the -4.5 game bet but would win the straight set bet, and again, you’re getting the better price with straight sets.
That being said, betting on Pegula winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pegula winning 2:0 @1.60 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
