The WTA Rome tournament third round begins on Saturday. The WTA Tour is so interesting because the matchups are very balanced in most cases. Aryna Sabalenka is a clear favorite in her third-round match, but many of the other third-round matches are not easy to predict and have a very good chance of going three sets. Which players will remain in good form and which ones will struggle? It’s not easy to answer those questions during a tour with so much parity. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Rome
Paolini – Mertens: Time 7:00 EST
H2H: 2-4
Jasmine Paolini is the defending champion in Rome, but she isn’t playing like a champion right now. Paolini is having an inconsistent season. Her first match this week in Rome was a tough three-setter against Leolia Jeanjean, a much lower-ranked opponent who gave the Italian trouble. It seemed Paolini was nervous due to playing in front of her home-nation fans at a tournament, which is very important to her. Paolini obviously wants to do well in Italy, but what also matters is that if she loses early in Rome, she will lose a large number of ranking points. This match against Elise Mertens is hugely critical for Paolini.
Best Bet to Make
Jasmine Paolini has not been playing very well. She is 3-3 in her last six matches, which is not how a top-15 player should play. This is part of why Mertens is the favorite according to the betting markets. The head-to-head advantage is another reason why Mertens (4-2 versus Paolini) is the betting favorite. However, it’s not as though Mertens has been playing great tennis. She is only 4-3 in her last seven matches. Paolini is playing worse than Mertens, but only slightly. It’s not a huge gap. Paolini is playing in front of her own fans and should receive a lot of crowd support. Paolini moneyline offers great value.
That being said, betting on Paolini winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Paolini winning @2.16 @1xBet
Zheng – Ostapenko: Time 8:00 EST
H2H: 3–0
This match can be viewed in multiple ways. On one hand, Qinwen Zheng could be viewed as the heavy favorite over Jelena Ostapenko, given a 3-0 head-to-head record. On the other hand, these two players are separated by only four spots in the WTA rankings (32 for Zheng, 36 for Ostapenko). Zheng might be 3-0 against Ostapenko, but Zheng has not been playing especially strong tennis. Zheng used to be a top-five player in the WTA rankings. Now she is 32. There are reasons to bet on both players … but maybe that’s a sign of how you should view this match.
Best Bet to Make
This match won’t give you a great return for the Zheng moneyline. Zheng to win in straight sets is a possible bet, but Zheng has not been relentlessly consistent, and Ostapenko often plays well enough to win one set in a match. Ostapenko, though, isn’t consistent either and will have a lot of ups and downs in her matches. Here are the key stats to think about: Zheng has played three-set matches in three of her last four matches. Ostapenko has played a three-setter in four of her last six matches. This is not a side bet. This is a total bet. Over 2.5 sets has a great return on many sites.
That being said, betting on Over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Over 2.5 sets @2.50 @Betsson
Sabalenka – Cirstea: Time 8:30 EST
H2H: 2-1
Aryna Sabalenka and Sorana-Mihaela Cirstea both looked really strong in their second-round match wins in Rome. They both won in straight sets. They both showed efficiency and focus. Sabalenka has been an amazing tiebreaker player in recent years, but that’s part of the problem for her: She will sometimes make a first set very complicated. In her Rome win over Barbora Krejcikova, she did not need a tiebreaker and was able to gain control of the match right away. Cirstea completely dominated Tatjana Maria in a blowout. Cirstea will enter this match in rhythm.
Best Bet to Make
It is true that Sabalenka is the better player and should win the match, but betting is often a test not of who will win but of how close a competition will be. Sabalenka will win, so you can put her on the moneyline as a parlay piece. In terms of a single match wager (no parlay), Cirstea should be able to cover the game spread. She is playing well enough to keep this match close. A 6-4, 6-3 Sabalenka win is a routine scoreline, and yet Cirstea will cash if that is the final score.
That being said, betting on Cirstea +5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Cirstea +5.5 games @2.05 @10Bet
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
