The ATP Masters 1000 Rome first round on May 7 features a few solid clay-court angles. Roman Andres Burruchaga looks well-positioned to capitalise on the poor recent form of Mattia Bellucci. At the same time, the experience of Roberto Bautista Agut should give him the edge over wildcard Francesco Maestrelli. Meanwhile, Matteo Berrettini has both the clay-court pedigree and head-to-head advantage to feel confident against Alexei Popyrin.
ATP Masters 1000 Rome 1/64-Finals
Burruchaga – Bellucci: 07.05.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Roman Andres Burruchaga has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Cagliari, Burruchaga lost to Hurkacz in the semifinals in three tight sets. Last season in Rome, Burruchaga lost to Khachanov in the second round in three sets.
Mattia Bellucci has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Cagliari, Bellucci lost to Cadenasso in the second round in straight sets. He has never made it past the opening round in Rome.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Burruchaga is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Bellucci struggled with his form for the past few months and has never made it past the opening round in Rome. We expect Burruchaga to be more consistent and win.
That being said, Burruchaga covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Roman Andres Burruchaga -3.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Bautista-Agut – Maestrelli: 07.05.2026 14:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Roberto Bautista-Agut has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Aix en Provence, the Spaniard lost to Tabilo in the second round in three sets. Last season in Rome, Bautista-Agut lost to Paul in the second round in straight sets.
Francesco Maestrelli has lost eight straight matches. The last match he won was over two months ago. Last week in Mauthausen, Maestrelli lost to Damas in the opening round in straight sets. He has been granted a wild card for this week’s tournament in Rome.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Maestrelli is in terrible form and has never succeeded at the Masters 1000 level, where he lacks experience. On the other hand, Bautista-Agut is one of the most experienced players in the draw. We expect him to be a better player.
That being said, Bautista-Agut winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Roberto Bautista-Agut winning @1.53 @bet365
Popyrin – Berrettini: 07.05.2026 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-4
Alexei Popyrin has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Madrid, Popyrin lost to Damm in the opening round in straight sets. Last season in Rome, Popyrin lost to Medvedev in the third round.
Matteo Berrettini has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Cagliari, Berrettini lost to Hurkacz in the quarterfinals in three sets. He was the quarterfinalist here in 2020. Last season, the Italian retired mid-match against Ruud in the third round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Berrettini is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a way better clay-court player than Popyrin, leading 4-1 in head-to-head meetings. We expect Berrettini to win easily.
That being said, Berrettini covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettini -2.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
