The WTA Madrid quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday. The Madrid fourth round was played entirely on Monday, followed by two quarterfinals on Tuesday. These are the other two quarterfinals, leading into Thursday’s semifinals. Because the Wednesday quarterfinal winners won’t have a day off before the semifinals, it will be important for these players to try to win their matches as quickly as possible. However, that might not be possible. These are balanced, interesting matchups in which both players could play well at the same time. When that happens, winning a match easily just isn’t possible. Advancing to the semifinals is the first order of business. Let’s look at Wednesday’s two quarterfinals.
WTA Madrid
Pliskova – Potapova: Time 7:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
Karolina Pliskova and Anastasia Potapova are two highly unexpected Madrid quarterfinalists. One will make the semifinals and get a huge rankings boost. Both have significantly improved their standing in the tour rankings already. Now the points get bigger.
Pliskova began Madrid ranked No. 197 due to injuries and a career interruption in which she had multiple surgeries. She is now back to playing like the athlete who used to be a major title contender. She has lifted her live ranking to 129 and will likely crack the top 100 if she can win this match. Potapova is in the top 50 with her run to the quarterfinals. She beat World No. 2 Elena Rybakina in the Round of 16 to continue a very successful April in which she made the Linz final.
Best Bet to Make
This match should be close. These are evenly-matched players, playing well. Notably, Pliskova’s Monday match was played several hours before Potapova’s match. Also, Potapova had to work harder to beat Rybakina than Pliskova did against Solana Sierra. Pliskova should be fresher. You could bet Pliskova to win at a 2.55 price (Interwetten), but you will get more margin for error if you bet on the game spread, still at a reasonable market price.
That being said, betting on Pliskova +3.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pliskova +3.5 games @1.80 @bet365
Kostyuk – Noskova: Time 14:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Marta Kostyuk is playing great tennis. The Ukrainian has won her last nine matches. She won the Rouen tour title and has come to Madrid and stayed hot. She has won her last five matches in straight sets, including a decisive win over World No. 5 player Jessica Pegula. Kostyuk hasn’t lost a set in Madrid and has won the last 11 sets she has played. She is on fire. Linda Noskova is playing really well too, however. She has won seven of her last eight matches and just beat Coco Gauff in three sets. Two in-form players collide in a big match.
Best Bet to Make
It’s hard to bet against Kostyuk actually winning the match, given her run of form, but Noskova is also playing well. With two good players both riding a wave of confidence, predicting a close match is a very reasonable bet to make. If a match is close, the underdog – the player who is getting games and not giving them on the spread – becomes an attractive play if the price is right. The price for Noskova isn’t spectacular, but it’s decent.
That being said, betting on Noskova +3.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Noskova +3.5 games @1.73 @10Bet
Main Photo Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports
