The first clay 1,000-point tournament of 2026 is here. The Monte Carlo tournament marks the heart of the ATP clay season, ahead of Madrid and Rome on the road to the French Open. Will the clay-court specialists rise and take advantage of their comfort level on this surface? Will players who performed well at Indian Wells and Miami carry their form into European clay? Let’s take a look at a few interesting second-round matches on Tuesday:
ATP Monte Carlo
Monfils – Bublik: Time 15:30
H2H: 2-1
Alexander Bublik cracked the ATP top 10 recently. He’s just outside the top 10 right now. He has won 13 tour matches this year compared to just three for Gael Monfils. These two players have met only three times, and the last time they played was in 2023 on hardcourt. Both players have gone through a lot of career changes since then, with the biggest one being Bublik’s rise on tour.
Best Bet to Make
The odds of a prolonged match seem promising. Bublik is the better player, but Monfils – playing in Monte Carlo – should enjoy a supportive French crowd. The transition from hardcourt to clay provides an extra element of uncertainty, which points to a close match. Neither player did well in Indian Wells or Miami, so Bublik is not riding a hot streak. He won most of his 2026 matches earlier in the season. Betting the over on a higher total of games offers good value.
That being said, taking the over on the number of games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Over 22.5 games @1.98 @1xBet
Norrie – De Minaur: Time 15:30
H2H: 3-2
Alex De Minaur is an ATP top 10 player. Cameron Norrie, who won Indian Wells a few years ago, has since cooled off. However, Norrie won the most recent meeting between the two players and leads the overall head-to-head matchup. Four of the five matches between these players have been on hardcourt, however, and De Minaur won the only meeting on clay. De Minaur, as tennis fans know, is a strong defensive player. On the slower surface, it will be harder for Norrie to hit enough winners.
Best Bet to Make
The angle here is the game spread. De Minaur, having lost to Norrie at Indian Wells, is surely primed for revenge. Playing on a different surface should suit his game. It’s not as though De Minaur would have to blow out Norrie to win this match by at least four games. Just winning two sets by two games each would be enough, and De Minaur is capable of doing that in Monte Carlo.
That being said, De Minaur winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: De Minaur -3.5 games winning @2.0 @WilliamHill
Popyrin– Ruud: Time 14:00
H2H: 1-1
Alexei Popyrin faces ninth seed Casper Ruud in an interesting early-round match. Popyrin, with his big serve, would generally be viewed as a hardcourt or grass threat, but he defeated Ruud in Monte Carlo last year, 7-5 in the third set. Will he be able to replicate that performance? Ruud has made the final of the French Open multiple times and loves to play on red clay.
Best Bet to Make
Alexei Popyrin lost to Frances Tiafoe – not a particularly good clay court player – at the Houston ATP Tour stop last week. If he can’t beat Tiafoe on clay, it doesn’t bode well for Popyrin this time against Ruud. It stands to reason that Ruud will not lose twice in a row to the same lower-ranked opponent on clay. Ruud is usually good at beating the players he is supposed to beat, especially on clay. This will be a two-set match with neither set going longer than 10 total games.
That said, Under 21.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Under 21.5 games @2.10 @WilliamHill
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey–USA TODAY Sports
