Last year, wild card Valentin Vacherot won his first-ever match at the Monte Carlo Masters. This year, Vacherot got into the tournament on his own ranking and matched that result with a first-round comeback on Monday. His points are defended, his home crowd is behind him, and the only way to go is up.
The same cannot be said for his second-round opponent.
On paper, fourth seed Lorenzo Musetti should win this match. Musetti is one of the best players in the world on clay, and he had a breakthrough run in Monte Carlo last year where he made the final. But Musetti has been struggling with injuries lately, and he hasn’t won a match since the Australian Open. And with a tough opening match in the form of Vacherot, Musetti’s past success here may be more of a burden than an aid.
The Pressure on Musetti
The biggest issue here is the pressure of defending his points. While the drop in the rankings won’t be too substantial if Musetti loses this match, he will sink to the bottom of the Top 10 and could fall out of it depending on other players’ results. But more than that, Musetti needs this cushion heading into the rest of clay season; upcoming point defenses for him are semifinal runs in Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros, which are all significant. Losing early in Monte Carlo would be a blow to Musetti’s ranking, and it could also be a blow to his confidence as he tries to replicate his clay-court success from last year.
Musetti’s situation would be tough no matter who his first Monte Carlo opponent is, but Vacherot is far from the optimal name in the draw.
Vacherot’s Upward Trajectory
In previous editions of the tournament, Vacherot was just the local wildc ard, but since winning the Shanghai Masters Vacherot has been on a meteoric rise and hasn’t stopped. Currently sitting at a career high of No. 23 in the ATP rankings and with absolutely nothing to defend, Vacherot isn’t feeling the ranking pressure the way Musetti is. And that ability to play just a little more freely could make a difference.
Of course, Vacherot has never had such expectations from his home crowd before. But he managed to handle it when down a set and a break in his first-round match. And since he’s playing a Top 10 player, it’s hard to see the crowd support being anything but helpful for him.
Stranger things have happened in Vacherot’s career than defeating Musetti on clay. And Musetti very well could be healed, rested, and ready to play his best clay-court tennis. But all signs point to this match being, if not a thriller, at least incredibly interesting. For the most part, Vacherot has been playing to his ranking, and this is a prime chance for an upset in front of his home crowd. As for Musetti, getting past this hurdle could prove crucial in the long run.
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