This year’s Wimbledon has proven to be one of the most entertaining and surprising so far, with so many heavyweights being eliminated.
Defending champion Iga Świątek suffered a shock defeat to Alexandra Eala in the Round of 32; Naomi Osaka beat four-time Grand Slam winner Aryna Sabalenka in the Round of 16; French Open champion Mirra Andreeva, 2025 finalist Amanda Anisimova, and Eliza Svilolina have all suffered similar fates.
Almost half of the top 15 players have been eliminated so far, and this tournament has once again turned out to be brutal. So who stands the best chance of raising the trophy on Saturday?
Why Noskova Winning Wimbledon Makes Sense
To win a Grand Slam, one must endure seven grueling matches over the course of 2 weeks.
In team sports, a poor performance can often be masked by a teammate’s efforts. However, in tennis, any dip in form reveals every technical imperfection right away. There is no bench to take a break on; players must figure out the challenges during the match, and only those in a good rhythm possess the mental agility to do so.
I firmly believe that Linda Noskova’s form will be vital to her success.
Breaking Down the Remaining Contenders
Linda Noskova
Among the remaining participants, she has proven to be the best grass-court specialist since the start of 2025 with a record of 17 wins and 4 losses. She holds the record for the most wins by any woman in that span. She won her first grass title in Berlin 2026, beating Jessica Pegula in the final. This propelled her into the top 10.
Coco Gauff
She has a solid career grass record, roughly 25-12 (67%). She’s reached deep runs but hasn’t dominated grass with titles. Gauff’s breakthrough moment at Wimbledon came in 2019 when she defeated Venus Williams. This victory remains one of the most iconic debut performances in tennis history. She has reached the fourth round of Grand Slams multiple times, but grass has historically been her toughest surface at the majors. Gauff will be making her first semi-final appearance of the tournament. Good but not the absolute best on grass.
Karolína Muchová
The 2026 Doha Open champion has a respectable career record on grass. She reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon in 2019 and 2021. In the fourth round, she recorded one of the famous victories in the tournament’s history by defeating Karolína Plíšková 4-6, 7-5, 13-11, having come back from behind. Muchova reached her first grass final and won the title in Bad Homburg 2026.
Marta Kostyuk
She has a poorer career grass record, ranging from 40–49%, the surface historically her weakest surface. This 2026 Wimbledon performance marks a clear step up in her grass game, showing improved adaptation, confidence, and results after limited prep before Wimbledon. The 2026 Madrid Open champion has never won a title on grass.
Jasmine Paolini
Historically, grass was Paolini’s least favorable surface before 2024. She had not secured a victory in a main-draw WTA-level grass match before that year and had a somewhat limited overall record. However, she has evolved from a grass-court beginner to a reliable competitor on this surface, as evidenced by her runner-up finish at Wimbledon in 2024. While the Italian excels in doubles on grass, she has yet to claim any significant singles titles on this surface.
Elise Mertens
Since 2017, she has consistently participated in the main draw. This timeframe featured impressive grass court preparations and significant victories, including a win against Angelique Kerber in 2022. The Belgian triumphed over Elena-Gabriella Ruse in the Libema Open final, securing her inaugural grass title. In doubles, she has proven her prowess, having won two titles at Wimbledon.
Conclusion
Noskova’s remarkable performance on grass in 2026, highlighted by her victory in Berlin and her advancement to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, positions her as a significant contender on this surface. She exhibits a potent baseline game coupled with an increasing self-assurance on grass. Noskova, in my mind, is the clear favorite, and it would not be unexpected if she secures the title.
Main Photo Credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun/USA TODAY NETWORK
