WTA Wimbledon Round of 16 play begins on Sunday. The tournament moves into the second week, and on Sunday, it’s the top half of the draw with some very interesting matches. Karolina Muchova and Jessica Pegula were viewed as contenders for the championship before the tournament began. Now they play in separate matches, both trying to get to the quarterfinals. This is one of the biggest weeks of the year, the road to the Wimbledon final next Saturday. Let’s see if Muchova and Pegula can take the next step and create bigger opportunities later in the week. LWOS has our best bet for two matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Wimbledon
Muchova – Krejcikova: 7:30 EST
H2H: 1-3
The WTA Wimbledon tournament gets even more intense on Sunday. The match that will get a lot of attention is Aryna Sabalenka versus Naomi Osaka, but this might be the better match because both players have proven themselves on grass. Karolina Muchova won the WTA 500 Bad Homburg event last month. Barbora Krejcikova won this WTA Wimbledon tournament two years ago in 2024. Muchova is the seeded player in this matchup at No. 10, but Krejcikova is playing better tennis. Krejcikova just beat Roland-Garros champion Mirra Andreeva and followed it up with a solid win against Nikola Bartunkova. Muchova trailed Mananchaya Sawangkaew, a much lower-ranked opponent, 4-2, in the second set of her third-round match before rallying to win that set. Krejcikova is the more in-form player, but Muchova is a clear betting market favorite. This one could be really good.
Best Bet to Make
Krejcikova is on a roll, having beaten Andreeva and Bartunkova, two good players. Muchova’s opponents have not been as good as the players Krejcikova has faced. This means a bet should either be pro-Krejcikova or should at least anticipate a long match, not a short one. The market does not have this match priced as a toss-up, but it feels closer to a toss-up than what the market thinks. You could put Krejcikova plus 1.5 sets into a parlay. For insurance, you could put Muchova moneyline into a parlay. Those prices (Krejcikova +1.5 sets and Muchova moneyline) are close to equal, so you could potentially get winners on two different parlays there. However, for the official recommended best bet, we’re going with over 2.5 sets. This feels like a match in which both players will have good periods of play. It’s made for that bet.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.42 @betsson
Pegula – Jovic: Time 8:00 EST
H2H: 2-0
This is a big opportunity for Jessica Pegula. She beat Aryna Sabalenka in the Berlin semifinals a few weeks ago. If she wins the next two matches and Sabalenka does the same, Pegula will face the World No. 1 in the WTA Wimbledon semifinals, in a match which could decide the winner of the whole tournament. Pegula has to get past Iva Jovic, a promising young player who just scored a good win over Ekaterina Alexandrova. Jovic is going into this match with a lot of confidence. However, Pegula will take the court feeling good about herself as well. Pegula looked very smooth in beating Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the previous round. It was her best performance of the week. She was better than in her previous two matches. The question is if Pegula will play up to that level here. If she does, she’s in good shape. If not, this could be close.
Best Bet to Make
The quality of Pegula’s performance in the previous round suggests that she will win here, but Pegula moneyline doesn’t offer quite enough of a price for us to recommend that as our best bet. If the moneyline isn’t enough, you can see if a small game spread will offer better value. Pegula minus 2.5 games is not a huge spread, but it’s better priced than Pegula moneyline. You could do something like Jovic plus 4.5 games as a parlay piece, but the main bet to make is Pegula -2.5 games.
That being said, betting on Pegula -2.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pegula -2.5 games @1.70 @bet-at-home
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
