Elena Rybakina won Wimbledon in 2022 without being seeded in the top ten, without anyone outside tennis paying much attention, and without the kind of pre-tournament build-up that typically surrounds a champion-in-waiting. She came from a set down in the final against Ons Jabeur, won six of the last eight games, and lifted the Venus Rosewater Dish as a 23-year-old who had never previously been past the fourth round of a Grand Slam.
It was one of the cleanest performances by a first-time major champion in recent memory. Her serve was dominant, her flat groundstrokes kept opponents pinned, and she showed composure under pressure that should have made her a recurring threat at SW19 for years to come.
That announcement has not quite been followed up on. A quarterfinal in 2023 was reasonable enough given she had dealt with illness throughout the grass season. A semifinal in 2024 was progress on paper, but felt like less, given how dangerous she looked on the surface.
Then, a third-round exit in 2025, a straight-sets loss to Clara Tauson that was her earliest Wimbledon defeat as a professional, confirmed a pattern nobody really wants to acknowledge about Elena Rybakina: she has never gone back and repeated what she did in 2022. Three years, three different Wimbledons, and the trophy has stayed on the shelf.
Rybakina at Wimbledon
Why 2026 Is Different, and Why It Might Not Be
The case for Elena Rybakina in 2026 starts with her exceptional season. She won a second major title at the Australian Open, confirming that her 2022 Wimbledon title was not a fluke and that she is capable of winning a fortnight’s worth of matches against the best players in the world. She has followed that up by winning in Stuttgart on clay and carries a 32-9 record into the grass season. At world number two, she is playing the best tennis of her career in terms of consistency and depth of results.
Her game on grass requires no adjustment and no improvement. Her serve is arguably the biggest weapon in women’s tennis, and on grass, where the ball stays low and skids through, it becomes near-unreturnable at times. She does not need to reinvent anything at the All England Club. She needs to show up, serve flat, and avoid passivity that has plagued her in some big matches over the past two years. The talent has never been the problem. The consistency across seven matches against high-quality opponents has been.
The case against is more uncomfortable but also more honest. After reaching the second week or better from 2021 through 2024, she fell short of that mark last year, losing in the third round to Clara Tauson. That loss did not fit the profile.
Tauson is a capable grass-court player, but she was not the kind of opponent who should be causing Elena Rybakina problems in week one. Something under the surface, whether it was form, confidence, or something else, produced a result that a player of her caliber should not be recording. And until she proves otherwise at SW19 specifically, that result hangs over any assessment of her chances.
The Draw Has Never Been More Open
Here is what makes this edition genuinely interesting.
The women’s field heading into Wimbledon 2026 is as unsettled as it has been in years. The last four titles have gone to four different players, which tells you everything about the current state of the women’s game. There is no dominant force, no player who looks untouchable on grass across a fortnight.
Aryna Sabalenka blew a set and a 5-3 lead in the French Open quarterfinals and lost the final set 6-0, which raises legitimate questions about her composure under pressure at the Slams. Coco Gauff has exited in the first round at Wimbledon in both 2023 and 2025 and has never been past the fourth round at SW19, which is a damning record for someone of her ability. Iga Swiatek won here last year, which counts for something, but she was an eighth seed when she did it, and the evidence that she has genuinely become a grass-court force rather than someone who happened to peak at the right time remains thin.
Elena Rybakina does not need to beat a great field to win this. She needs to beat a vulnerable one, and there is a meaningful distinction. The path to the final has rarely looked as navigable for a player of her ability. She is seeded, has been good this year, and is one of the few who have shown that they can do it.
The real question is whether four years removed from her finest fortnight, she can reproduce it. The serve is still there. The game is still built for grass. The draw is more open than it has been. All of that is true. But so is this: Elena Rybakina has had opportunities at Wimbledon since 2022 and has not taken them.
She might be the best candidate for the title. She also might be the player who has to prove that the 2022 version of herself was not a ceiling she cannot reach again.
Main Photo Credit: Peter van den Berg – USA TODAY Sports
