Former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka continues her bid to win her first grass-court title at the WTA Bad Homburg Open. The Japanese star faces Elise Mertens for a spot in the quarterfinals. As always, we at LWOT predict every match on the slate. But who will advance?
WTA Bad Homburg Day 3 Predictions
Leylah Fernandez vs Xinyu Wang
Head-to-head: first meeting
Fernandez ended her four-match losing streak in a thrilling comeback win against Katie Boutler. During her winless spell, the Canadian lost to Boulter in an epic at Queen’s Club. But she made sure the outcome would be different in their second meeting in as many weeks. Wang fired 15 aces on her way to a 6-1 6-2 victory against Renata Zarazua to get her grass-court campaign off and running. Her confidence on grass is growing while Fernandez’s has been patchy. Last year, Wang reached her first grass-court final in Berlin, and I think this is a genuine opportunity for the Chinese World No. 52 to continue her upward trend.
Prediction: Wang in 3
Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Head-to-head: Alexandrova 2-1 Li
Alexandrova will look to avenge her defeat to Li in Strasbourg. The Russian made the quarterfinals in her last visit to WTA Bad Homburg (lost to Iga Swiatek). Her grass-court campaign started dismally, losing to Panna Udvardy in the first round of the Libema Open. That said, she found some rhythm in Berlin, where she lost in two tight sets against Aryna Sabalenka. Li’s shot tolerance is superb. She is willing to stay in rallies and force opponents to hit an extra shot. But on grass, she’ll have too little time to impose her defensive qualities.
Prediction: Alexandrova in 2
Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens
Head-to-head: Osaka 4-3 Mertens
A straight-sets win over Magdalena Frech is a very encouraging start to this swing for Naomi Osaka, who needed two days to complete her WTA Bad Homburg match because of inclement weather. Mertens, for her part, knocked out Alexandra Eala to register her first-ever win in Bad Homburg. Osaka leads the head-to-head by the narrowest of margins and beat Mertens in their only grass-court meeting two years ago.
The former World No. 1’s serve looked stable (averaging 60% of points won behind first and second serves), and her ball striking was crisp. But the most important element in her opening-round win was that the match never drifted into the scrappy patterns that have occasionally affected her rhythm. And in such a mood, Osaka will be tough to beat.
Prediction: Osaka in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
