WTA Nottingham first-round action unfolds on Monday. Many WTA Tour pros are going to Berlin for the 500-point tournament this week, but others are going to Nottingham for the 250-point tournament two weeks before Wimbledon. The logic of playing in a 250 instead of a 500 is obvious: Get a better draw and therefore a better chance of playing winnable matches. Players need match play before Wimbledon, so going to the smaller tournament instead of the bigger one is a very logical way to achieve the goal of getting more matches on grass in this very short grass season. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Nottingham
Maria – Tjen: Time 6:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Tatjana Maria faces Janice Tjen. Tatjana Maria has been known as a very good grass tennis player, and Berlin gives her a chance to show that off. She has won four grass matches this year and is continuing to show why she is comfortable on this surface at Nottingham. She won three matches at Queen’s Club, including qualifying rounds, before finally losing to Elena Rybakina in three sets. Even when she lost, Maria looked impressive. That’s why she is a strong betting market favorite over Janice Tjen, who has lost four of her last five matches and has generally struggled so far this season.
Best Bet to Make
The best price for Maria moneyline is only 1.46, which is not a high-value bet and therefore a wager we won’t recommend as a standalone play. However, you can certainly fold Maria moneyline into a parlay and have that outcome accounted for. Our standalone play is a game spread bet. Maria should win, but grass matches often come down to one service break per set, meaning that the set is close and not a blowout. Maria could win a fairly straightforward 6-4, 6-4 match and yet fail to cover the 4.5-game spread. We are leaning to Tjen against the spread. Notably, the price for Tjen +1.5 sets and Tjen +4.5 games is the same. Might as well bet on games and not sets, since Tjen could lose two sets by two games apiece and still cover.
That being said, betting on Tjen +4.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tjen +4.5 games @1.73 @10bet
Bouzkova – Valentova: Time 6:00 EST
H2H: 1–0
Marie Bouzkova faces Tereza Valentova in the first round in Nottingham. Bouzkova has played two grass matches since Roland-Garros, winning one and losing one. Valentova decided to take the first week off after the French Open. This will be her first grass match of the 2026 season. Bouzkova is 3-2 in her last five matches, Valentova 2-3, but most of those results are on clay, not grass. Bouzkova is still in the top 30 despite her less-than-great results. Valentova has fallen outside the top 60 in the live rankings and will try to make up ground this week, starting with this match.
Best Bet to Make
The lack of grass match play for Valentova should enable Bouzkova to ultimately win, but Bouzkova moneyline is priced at 1.58 (best price, not average price), which is not quite a value bet according to our normal standards. You could fold Bouzkova moneyline into a parlay and then look at a better standalone wager for this match. One possibility that emerges is a game spread bet with Bouzkova giving 2.5 games. Bouzkova minus 2.5 games is priced at 1.83 at one book. Minus 2.5 games is a very small spread. Why bet the moneyline when you can get minus 2.5 for a much better rate? That’s the play here.
That being said, betting on Bouzkova -2.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bouzkova -2.5 games @1.83 @unibet
Zheng – Sakkari: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 2-2
Qinwen Zheng faces Maria Sakkari at Nottingham. This is a match of players who have gone through similar journeys, though not at the same stage of their careers. Zheng is 23 years old, Sakkari 30, so these players are not facing the same sense of urgency. Sakkari doesn’t have a lot of time left in her career, while Zheng can regroup and adjust with so much time ahead of her. However, their paths have been similar. They both reached the WTA top 10, then gradually faced tougher competition from the rest of the tour. They both struggled as opposing players learned how to play against them. They have both fallen out of the WTA top 40. Sakkari enters this match as World No. 41 in the live rankings. Zheng has tumbled all the way outside of the top 150. Both players are in need of a fresh start in the grass season.
Best Bet to Make
Zheng is the betting market favorite, even though her ranking has tumbled and she is just 2-4 in her last six matches. Sakkari is also 2-4 in her last six matches, which might explain why Zheng is still the favorite. Notably, Zheng’s moneyline price is close to 1.60, while Sakkari plus 1.5 sets is priced at 1.55. You could put both of those bets into parlays and give yourself different chances to cash some tickets and also to middle your bet. However, for a standalone wager, we recommend the game spread. Sakkari might not be the clearly superior player, but she certainly isn’t worse than the struggling Zheng. Sakkari getting 3.5 games is priced very reasonably. That’s the play to make.
That being said, betting on Sakkari +3.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sakkari +3.5 games @1.67 @10bet
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
