The WTA French Open women’s qualifying action begins. These matches won’t receive the same attention that the main draw of the tournament will get, but these are huge moments for tour professionals. Getting into the main draw of a major tournament means a bigger paycheck and an opportunity to make a huge gain in the rankings. A lot of players are pursuing money, points, and the important opportunity to be able to directly qualify for smaller tournaments later this season and in the future. These are season-defining moments for many of the players involved. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA French Open qualifying
Knutson – Trevisan: Time 15:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Gabriela Knutson is 3-3 in her last six matches. Martina Trevisan is 2-4 in her last six matches. However, Trevisan has played in the qualifying rounds of Madrid and the main draw of Rome, facing better competition. Therefore, the worse record over the last six matches should be seen in light of the opponents Trevisan has faced. Neither player is clearly in superior form going into this match. Trevisan made the 2022 French Open semifinals, but she is far from the same player four years later. It will be interesting to see which version of Trevisan shows up.
Best Bet to Make
Trevisan has a noticeable advantage over Knutson strictly in terms of French Open experience. Trevisan has done some really good things at this tournament in the past. However, Trevisan hasn’t really looked that good on court in recent weeks. She probably will win this match, but will she dominate? It’s hard to look at Trevisan’s run of form and think she will gain a blowout win. You could fold Trevisan moneyline into a parlay, but in terms of a single bet, you should take Knutson either on a set spread or game spread.
That being said, betting on Knutson +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Knutson +1.5 sets @1.80 @Unibet
Sherif – Lazaro Garcia: Time 15:00 EST
H2H: 1–2
Mayar Sherif faces Andrea Lazaro Garcia. This is a really interesting match because the details attached to it can easily lead bettors to go in either direction when considering who will win. Sherif is ranked 37 spots higher, 114 to 151, whereas Lazaro Garcia has the head-to-head advantage and has won the only match the two played this year, in Dubrovnik. Sherif has played higher-level tournaments, having played in the Rome qualifying rounds. Lazaro Garcia did not. On the other hand, Lazaro Garcia is 4-1 in her last five matches while Sherif is just 2-3.
Best Bet to Make
This is a relatively even matchup. Picking the outright winner is the central challenge here. You could trust Lazaro Garcia based on her Dubrovnik win several weeks ago, but Sherif sharpened her skills by playing Rome qualifying and has generally faced better competition since that Dubrovnik matchup between the two players. Sherif is more likely to avenge that recent loss. Go with Sherif.
That being said, betting on Sherif winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sherif winning @1.76 @Pinnacle
Barthel – Friedsam: Time 15:00 EST
H2H: 0–0
Mona Barthel faces Anna-Lena Friedsam. Barthel is ranked World No. 186, Friedsam No. 211. Barthel is 3-3 in her last six matches, while Friedsam is 2-4. However, Friedsam has played higher-level tournaments, entering Stuttgart qualifying and also competing in the Parma event, a WTA 125 tournament. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot separating the two players, and the markets basically agree. This is priced very close to a toss-up. You’ll get nearly equal value for picking the moneyline winner either way.
Best Bet to Make
In a matchup that seems dead even, it’s often good to pick the player who is facing stiffer competition on a more regular basis. Barthel’s last 10 matches have all been on the challenger circuit, while Friedsam has played in the qualifying rounds of Stuttgart and Linz while also playing in the Parma 125 event. Friedsam has tested herself in tougher tournaments, so it’s hard to bet against her even though she is ranked 25 spots lower than Barthel.
That being said, betting on Friedsam winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Friedsam winning @1.89 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
