The WTA Rome tournament continues on Wednesday. The first-round main draw began on Tuesday. Wednesday will fill out the rest of the Round of 96 before the top seeds begin their tournament on Thursday and Friday in the Round of 64. Players in the back end of the top 100 and in the lower 100s will try to make crucial gains in rankings points with the French Open not that far away. The qualifying rounds are over; it’s an exciting time for tennis fans as the main draw begins to create some very interesting stories. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Rome
Udvardy – Korneeva: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
This is a very difficult match to handicap. Panna Udvardy got into the main draw of Madrid and won a match before losing to eventual tournament runner-up Mirra Andreeva. Alina Korneeva did not make the main draw of Madrid. Udvardy is ranked nearly 50 spots higher than Korneeva. All of this would seem to point to a clear Udvardy win. However, there are other details to consider. Udvardy lost in Madrid qualifying and was a lucky loser. She made good use of that LL position by winning a main-draw match, but it’s not as though she had full momentum in Madrid. Korneeva, meanwhile, has won two Rome qualifying matches, beating Ella Seidel and Lilli Tagger to get to the first round.
Best Bet to Make
Udvardy seems to be the market’s choice, and as we explained above, there are obvious and legitimate reasons for this. However, she has not been a very consistent player in recent weeks. Korneeva’s two Rome qualifying wins give her confidence and rhythm heading into this match. Udvardy might win, but she doesn’t seem to be as clear a favorite when you look into the details. Korneeva to win should have really good value.
That being said, betting on Korneeva winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Korneeva winning @2.63 @1xBet
Eala – Frech: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0–0
This match between Alexandra Eala and Magdalena Frech involves two players who are ranked within three spots of each other (42 and 45). Based on that fact, you might think this is a very even match. You might also think that since Frech is European (from Poland) while Eala is from the Philippines, Frech will feel more at home in Rome. Yet, a deeper look at the details should offer reason to make a very confident bet in a different direction.
Best Bet to Make
This match is a moneyline play. Eala is not playing great tennis – 2-3 in her last five matches – but she has lost to Elise Mertens, Jelena Ostapenko, and Leylah Fernandez, all solid top-50 players. Magdalena Frech has lost five matches in a row, all to players ranked noticeably lower than Mertens, Ostapenko, and Fernandez. Frech hasn’t won a match since late February. Eala should be a much heavier favorite than what the markets are posting. Just take Eala on the moneyline.
That being said, betting on Eala winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Eala winning @1.81 @Pinnacle
Stefanini – Ostapenko: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Jelena Ostapenko is one of the hardest tennis players to bet on because she is so inconsistent. When you think she has a favorable matchup, she will still lose a set and blow up your set spread or game spread pick. When you think she is going to lose decisively, she wins a set and puts up a good fight. This match against Lucrezia Stefanini will test everyone’s patience with her. Should you fade Ostapenko or trust her this time? Ostapenko is ranked almost 120 spots higher than Stefanini (36 to 154).
Best Bet to Make
It is always hard to trust Ostapenko. You won’t get much of a price for Ostapenko to win in straight sets, so the game spread is the play. The even price comes at 6.5 games. Ostapenko could get on a roll and win this match 6-2, 6-1, but Stefanini is Italian. She will have a home crowd rooting for her. All she needs to do to cover the spread is lose 6-3, 6-3, or 6-4, 6-2. Knowing how erratic Ostapenko can be, trusting her with that large of a game spread doesn’t seem like the right play to make. Go with Stefanini against the spread.
That being said, betting on Stefanini +6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Stefanini +6.5 games @1.88 @Unibet
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
