The ATP Masters 1000 Rome opening round offers a few interesting clay-court angles. Matteo Arnaldi comes in with strong momentum after his title run and should carry confidence into a tricky home matchup against Jaume Munar. Meanwhile, Sebastian Baez looks well-positioned to exploit the surface advantage against Jenson Brooksby. At the same time, Damir Dzumhur has a favourable opportunity to capitalise on the poor recent form of Adrian Mannarino.
ATP Masters 1000 Rome 1/64-Finals
Arnaldi – Munar: 06.05.2026 14:30 CEST
H2H: 2-3
Matteo Arnaldi has won five straight matches. Last week in Cagliari, Arnaldi won the Challenger title, defeating Hurkacz in the final in straight sets. This week in Rome, Arnaldi has been granted a wild card. Last season in Rome, the Italian lost in the opening round to Bautista-Agut.
Jaume Munar has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Madrid, Munar lost to Ruud in the second round in straight sets. Last season in Rome, the Spaniard lost to Ruud in the fourth round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Arnaldi comes into this match fully confident after finally playing a solid tournament. He defeated several clay-court specialists in Cagliari and enjoys playing in front of his home crowd.
That being said, Arnaldi winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Arnaldi winning @1.67 @bet365
Brooksby – Baez: 06.05.2026 11:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Jenson Brooksby has lost four of his last five matches. So far this season, the American has played two clay-court matches and lost both. Last week in Madrid, Brooksby lost to Nava in the opening round in straight sets.
Sebastian Baez has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Madrid, Baez lost to Gaubas in the opening round in straight sets. Last season in Rome, the Argentine lost to Kopriva in the second round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Baez is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. The Argentine is a way better clay-court player and had decent results in Rome. We expect him to keep the rallies long and get a comfortable win.
That being said, Baez covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Baez -4.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Dzumhur – Mannarino: 06.05.2026 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-4
Damir Dzumhur has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Cagliari, Dzumhur retired mid-match against Nava in the opening match. Last season in Rome, the Bosnian lost to Gaubas in the opening round in three sets. He has never made it past the second round here.
Adrian Mannarino has lost six straight matches. Last week in Cagliari, Mannarino lost to de Jong in the opening round in three sets. Last season in Rome, Mannarino lost to Taberner in the qualifying tournament.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Dzumhur is the clear favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Mannarino has played 13 times in Rome and has only made it past the opening round once. We expect Dzumhur to dominate and get a comfortable win.
That being said, Dzumhur winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Damir Dzumhur winning 2-0 @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
