The WTA Rome qualifying round unfolds on Monday. The biggest tournament before the French Open gets going in Italy. Players who did not do well in Madrid will try to bounce back in Rome and gain some momentum on clay before moving to Paris later in May. There’s a lot to play for in Rome. Let’s look at three matches on the Monday card.
WTA Rome
Sasnovich – Grabher: Time 5:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Julia Grabher were, as of Sunday, separated by just two spots in the WTA rankings, both outside the top 100. They both need to pick up some wins and points to improve their chances of making big tournaments later this year. This is a crucial match for both players. Sasnovich did not get out of qualifying in Madrid. Grabher made the second round of Madrid before losing. She went to last week’s Weisbaden challenger event and won two matches before losing in her third match.
Best Bet to Make
Grabher’s recent results are clearly better than Sasnovich’s. You could even go with Grabher to win the match outright if you want, but you’re getting a really good price as it is just for Grabher to win a set and make this match close. Sasnovich doesn’t deserve the level of trust she is getting from the betting markets, which have installed her as a relatively clear-cut favorite.
That being said, betting on Grabher +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Grabher +1.5 sets @1.91 @coral
Ruse – Dodin: Time 5:30 EST
H2H: 1-1
Elena Gabriela Ruse lost to Elena Rybakina in the second round of Madrid, but she took a set off the World No. 2 before losing. She is playing solid tennis even if the overall win-loss results might not be that amazing. Ruse has also beaten Jelena Ostapenko and Dayana Yastremska in the past month. Oceane Dodin has lost four of her last five matches. She lost in the first round of qualifying in Madrid. The head-to-head is 1-1, but these players haven’t met since 2021, so don’t read too much into that fact.
Best Bet to Make
This match is likely to be lopsided. The betting markets have Ruse as a strong favorite for a reason. She has been playing better tennis than Dodin against superior competition. You won’t even get a good price for Ruse winning in straight sets, so you have to go to the game spread to find real value here.
That being said, betting on Ruse -6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ruse -6.5 games @1.80 @10bet
Pedone – Waltert: Time 5:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
Georgia Pedone’s last 10 matches have all been on the Challenger circuit. She has won five matches in a row, so against the competition she is facing, she is doing well. Simona Waltert has played some challenger tennis recently, including last week in Weisbaden. Still, she also played Madrid, winning two qualifying matches and a first-round match before losing to Jelena Ostapenko in the second round. This match will show if Pedone’s run of form at a lower level of competition can lift her against Waltert, a player ranked nearly 240 spots higher (97 to 330).
Best Bet to Make
Pedone’s collection of wins shows that she is in rhythm and is playing confidently. However, she is playing competition which is not as strong as Waltert, who faced Ostapenko in Madrid and successfully reached the main draw of a 1,000-point tournament. A rankings gap of over 230 spots suggests that Waltert should be able to win this match decisively. You won’t get a good price for Waltert winning in straight sets, so you once again need to go to the game spread.
That being said, betting on Waltert -6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Waltert -6.5 games @2.10 @10bet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
