The ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1/32-finals keep offering some nice angles. Tsitsipas has a huge H2H edge over de Minaur and should keep things tight. Korda looks solid at home and should have too much for Ugo Carabelli, while Jodar continues his strong run and looks set to take control against Vukic.
ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1/32-Finals
Tsitsipas – De Minaur: 21.03.2026 21.03.2026 00:30 CEST
H2H: 11-1
Stefanos Tsitsipas has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Indian Wells, Tsitsipas lost to Shapovalov in the opening round in three sets. This week in Miami, Tsitsipas defeated Fery in the opening round in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving all three breakpoints he offered.
Alex de Minaur has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Indian Wells, where he lost to Norrie in the third round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, de Minaur is the favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Tsitsipas leads 11-1 in head-to-head meetings. He dominated in the opening match, and if he serves well, we expect him to keep this match close.
That being said, Tsitsipas covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Stefanos Tsitsipas +2.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Ugo Carabelli – Korda: 21.03.2026 00:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Camilo Ugo Carabelli has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Ugo Carabelli defeated Mpetshi Perricard in three sets, after losing the opening set 2-6. Last season in Miami, the Argentine lost to Djokovic in the third round in straight sets.
Sebastian Korda has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Indian Wells, where he lost to de Minaur in the second round in three tight sets. Last season in Miami, the American lost to Djokovic in the quarterfinals.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Korda is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a better hard-court player than Ugo Carabelli and enjoys playing at home. Korda has more experience at the Masters 1000 level, and we expect him to dominate in this match.
That being said, Korda covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Korda -4.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365
Vukic – Jodar: 21.03.2026 03:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Aleksandar Vukic has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Vukic lost to Barrios Vera in the final qualifying round. However, with several players withdrawing from the tournament, the Australian entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
Rafael Jodar has won three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Jodar qualified for the main draw tournament by winning both matches in straight sets. In the opening main draw round, the Spaniard defeated Hanfmann in three sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Jodar is the heavy favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He has dominated every match this week and served well. On the other hand, Vukic lost to Barrios Vera in the final qualifying round. We expect Jodar to dominate and get a comfortable win.
That being said, Jodar covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Rafael Jodar -3.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
