Two rounds of the 2026 Australian Open are complete, and the tournament has clarified into what most expected: a three-horse race. Something unexpected could derail the script, as it sometimes does, but the overwhelming likelihood is that Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, or Novak Djokovic will lift the trophy in Melbourne.
None of this is surprising. These were the favorites before anyone hit a ball. What’s worth examining is how each has performed through the opening rounds and what the early numbers reveal about their form. It’s early and statistics can be misleading, but they offer clues about who’s playing the most complete tennis.
What Last Year’s Numbers Revealed
Looking back at the 2025 Australian Open provides useful context. Jannik Sinner held serve at an astonishing 95% clip, second only to Taylor Fritz by the narrowest of margins, just 0.2%. Compare that to Djokovic at 90% and Alcaraz at 87%, and the Italian’s advantage becomes clear. In a sport decided by thin margins, that difference was significant.
Alcaraz led the field in break percentage at 37.5%, which tracks with his aggressive, all-or-nothing approach. Sinner and Djokovic both sat at an identical 28%, reflecting their more measured styles of return play.
First serve winning percentage told another story. Sinner topped the charts at 81%, well ahead of Alcaraz’s 76% and Djokovic’s 74%. For total service points won, Sinner again led at 74% compared to 68% for both Alcaraz and Djokovic.
The pattern these numbers revealed was straightforward. Sinner won the tournament because he was the most clinical player on serve. When his first serve landed, breaking him became nearly impossible. Australian hard courts reward good servers, and if you can turn your serve into a genuine weapon, you’ll have success in Melbourne.
Neither Djokovic nor Alcaraz matched Sinner’s efficiency in that department, and it cost them. Djokovic’s physical issues didn’t help, but even healthy he would have struggled to match Sinner in a direct confrontation.
It’s worth noting that Sinner’s rise to dominance, particularly his back-to-back Melbourne titles, coincided directly with major improvements to his serve. Both first and second deliveries became massive weapons rather than lacklustre ones.
This Year’s Early Returns at the Australian Open
After two matches in 2026, how do the numbers compare? For Sinner, they look remarkably similar to last year’s dominant run. He’s winning 86% of first serve points, claiming close to 50% of return points, and converting break chances at roughly 50%. The numbers are impressive, though the context matters. He’s faced lesser opposition through two rounds, so reading too much into the statistics would be premature.
Djokovic’s numbers look even more impressive. He’s winning 90% of points behind his first serve. His second serve numbers dipped in the second round where he won only 39% of those points, but overall he’s been dominant. On return he’s taking about 50% of points and converting roughly 40% of break chances.
Alcaraz’s numbers are less imposing. He’s winning just 72% of first serve points and about 63% behind his second serve. On return he’s claiming 42% of points while converting break chances at a similar rate.
The early pattern is clear. The more methodical, computer-like games of Sinner and Djokovic have been destroying opponents, particularly on serve. Alcaraz has been less dominant, though that’s not entirely surprising. He’s struggled to impose himself in Melbourne in recent years, never quite finding the rhythm that makes him so dangerous at other majors.
Who Wins The Australian Open?
Predicting a winner after two rounds is premature, but the early evidence combined with recent history points in one direction. This remains Jannik Sinner’s tournament to lose. He’s been the benchmark in Melbourne, and nothing in the first two rounds suggests that’s changing. He’s the defending champion playing his best tennis on courts that suit his game perfectly.
Anyone who wants to win will have to go through him, and based on what we’ve seen so far, that will be one hell of a challenge. Djokovic has the experience and the early form, but questions remain about his body holding up over two weeks. Alcaraz has the talent but hasn’t yet shown he can dominate in Melbourne the way he does elsewhere.
The next few rounds will reveal more. But right now, the Italian remains the man to beat.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
