The final four are set for WTA Tokyo, and one of the participants was a surprise. Sofia Kenin was the largest underdog in yesterday’s matches, and yet she prevailed. If you cashed in on her, I tip my hat to you. Here are my picks for the semifinal matches. Please share your picks with us in the comments section.
WTA Tokyo Semifinals
Bencic – Kenin: Time 06:30
H2H: 0-2
Belinda Bencic vs Sofia Kenin is definitely not the match that many, including myself, expected here. It took Kenin three sets and a tiebreak to win her match against Alexandrova, but win she did. Anyone who picked Kenin straight up made a good chunk of change. Bencic also had a slugfest, but hers was with Karolina Muchova. That also took three sets and a tiebreak, so we know both of these women were pushed hard last round. What does that mean for the match overall? I suspect that one person is simply going to be too exhausted to put up much of a fight today.
Best Bet to Make
You can probably imagine who I think will crash out. Kenin, once again, enters the match as a sizeable underdog, though not as much as yesterday. This time, Kenin sits at about a 2.75-1 underdog, but there’s a catch. Kenin actually owns this series 2-0, and one of those games took place this year. The other was a WTA Mallorca final, which went three sets. That match was an absolute barnburner, but it was also in 2019. Unfortunately for us, neither of their prior matches was played on a hardcourt, so we don’t have that information to help us.
That being said, Bencic 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Bencic 2:0 @2.10 @Bet365
Noskova – Rybakina: Time 09:00
H2H: 0-3
Elena Rybakina vs Linda Noskova is our featured match. The two of them have three prior matches, all of which were won by Rybakina, and none of them went past two sets. The latest match was a round-of-16 match, not even three weeks ago, at WTA Wuhan. They also had a semifinal match at WTA Brisbane in 2024 and a second-round match at the French Open in 2023. Every match and set between these two seems to play out the same way. It’s usually 6-3, except for two instances. One of them was 6-2, and the other was 6-4. The consistency is pretty remarkable.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Rybakina as a favorite by about 1.25 points. Given that these women seem almost destined for 6-3 sets, your games total should cap out at 18. If history plays out as it has over the last three years, then 19 games should be the most that these two play. You can get the under on 20 games for 2.67 on 1xBet and I would seriously consider that, especially if you have some cash to play with. You can also grab under 20.5 games on Unibet for 2.48 if you would prefer a bit more wiggle room. Rybakina winning 2:0 goes for 2.2 on 1xbet, if you want to avoid a game total, but you strongly believe she will make quick work of Noskova.
That being said, Under 20 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Under 20 games @2.67 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports
