We are essentially three weeks away from the ATP Finals in Turin, which means that the race to Turin is entering its final stages. There aren’t many more points up for grabs, but this week (two ATP 500 events) and next week (an ATP 1000 Masters) will tell us which players will secure the final few spots available at the ATP Finals.
Lots of players are in contention, and in this piece, we’ll break down how things are looking before this final stretch of events. Three players have already qualified mathematically: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic.
Alexander Zverev at number four and Taylor Fritz at number five have strong chances to find themselves there, but beyond that, it’s an open battle. Let’s take a look at how the standings look for those who haven’t yet qualified.
| Player | Points |
| 4) Alexander Zverev | 4,280 |
| 5) Taylor Fritz | 3,835 |
| 6) Ben Shelton | 3,720 |
| 7) Alex de Minaur | 3,545 |
| 8) Lorenzo Musetti | 3,485 |
| 9) Felix Auger-Aliassime | 3,155 |
| 10) Jack Draper | 2,990 |
| 11) Casper Ruud | 2,745 |
| 12) Daniil Medvedev | 2,610 |
These are the players who are yet to qualify. Jack Draper is out of the race as he won’t compete again this year. The rest are in the race, including Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev, who kept their chances alive by winning events in the previous week.
Medvedev won the Almaty event while Ruud won the Stockholm event. They will have to push hard, though, because as we noted, there aren’t that many points available anymore. This week’s events give 500 points to the winners, next week’s event gives 1000 points to the winner, and the events after that give 250 points to the winners.
It’s unlikely either will win all of those, so getting to Musetti will be quite hard. Out of the whole field, they tend to have the lowest chances simply because of the low probability that they will get as many points as they need.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has a decent chance of overtaking Musetti because, generally, he’s considered the better indoor hard court player than the Italian. Both were in action in Antwerp, and Musetti lost quite early while Auger-Aliassime won the event.
The Italian was for a long time considered among those very likely to be in Turin in front of his native crowd, but his performances in the past few weeks are proof that he’s feeling the pressure. He set Turin as a goal for this season, and now, on the cusp of it, he’s failing to deliver. There’s plenty of time for him, but early exits won’t be enough.
One player to look out for is Ben Shelton, who missed over a month with a shoulder injury after the US Open. He was another one who was essentially slated to be in Turin, but since returning from the injury, his level hasn’t been very good.
He’ll need a solid push in the upcoming weeks to secure his spot, but with the points he has, it should be doable. De Minaur is another player who should have enough to secure a spot in Turin, with Zverev and Fritz likely to do so as well.
So the main battle for now will be between Musetti, who is not playing well at this moment, and Auger-Aliassime, whose form is surging. Whether Ruud or Medvedev manage to enter the conversation remains to be seen.
Let us also mention Andrey Rublev, who is right behind Medvedev in the race and has played well indoors in the past. Maybe in some crazy scenario he might find his way into the top eight as well, especially if somebody drops out.
Holger Rune was also slated to battle for a spot in Turin, but unfortunately, he injured his Achilles tendon and will miss significant time. The injury ended his season and any ambitions to find himself in Turin.
Either way, this week and especially next week in Paris will tell us a lot–if not settle the race altogether, so stick with us as we’ll have weekly updates on how the battle is unfolding.
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
