The action in China is heating up as WTA Ningbo reaches the quarterfinal stage, for real this time. Professional tennis matches are all over Asia as the WTA Osaka Open is running at the same time as WTA Ningbo, with both tournaments entering the quarterfinals. Whether you’re betting on the matches in Japan or in China, Last Word on Tennis has you covered. We looked at Osaka earlier; now it’s time for Ningbo. Here are my picks for the quarterfinal matches, the real ones. With that said, please leave your thoughts in the comments.
WTA Ningbo Quarterfinals
Alexandrova – Kessler: Time 08:30
H2H: 0-0
Ekaterina Alexandrova and McCartney Kessler will meet for the first time in China. Kessler enters the match fresh off a victory over Liudmila Samsonova, showing impressive grit in the first set tiebreak and complete domination in the second set. This was a much-needed performance from Kessler, who is seeking her third title this year. Alexandrova is coming off her match against Yue Yuan, in which Yuan spiritedly contested Alexandrova all evening. Though Alexandrova won 6-3, 6-3, Yuan held her own and gave the crowd a chance to cheer for one of their own. Alexandrova has one title this year, but Kessler has two.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Alexandrova as a pretty good favorite. The average sits at 1.43 to 2.77, and I think I might be able to explain why. Both women are 6-4 in their last ten matches, and they all took place on a hardcourt. That said, the records will fool you because they don’t account for the quality of the losses. Alexandrova lost to Iga Swiatek (x2), Jessica Pegula, and Barbora Krejcikova. The lowest-rated player she lost to was no. 32 in the World, and said player was formerly also the no. 2 player in the World at one point. I’m not saying Kessler lost to chopped liver, but the highest-rated player she lost to was Marketa Vondrousova at no. 36 in the World. I think Ekaterina Alexandrova 2:0 is tempting, but give me over 20.5 games at 1.82 and I’m good.
That being said, Over 20.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Over 20.5 games @1.20 @Pinnacle
Bencic – Paolini: Time 07:00
H2H: 2-1
Belinda Bencic vs Jasmine Paolini is our featured match. Both women are Top 15 in the World, and they have a small rivalry. Bencic has won two matches, and Paolini has one, but that one came earlier this year in the United Cup. Paolini took that match in two sets, only losing two games in the process. She’s been to two finals since then, winning one of them. Belinda Bencic also has a title this year, but that’s her only final. She did reach the semifinal at Wimbledon, but lost to Iga Swiatek in straight sets, barely putting up any resistance. Her performance might have been subject to more scrutiny had Amanda Anisimova not gone on to produce a double bagel in the final against Swiatek, making people completely forget about Bencic’s equally awful showing.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Paolini as a favorite. She enters the match at 8-2 in her last ten matches, and 26-11 on a hardcourt. Bencic enters the match at 7-3, and she is also 26-11 on a hardcourt. Paolini’s losses came to Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff. Bencic lost to Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and Ann Li. Paolini is also generally performing better than Bencic right now. Bencic hasn’t been past the round of 16 since Wimbledon, but Paolini has a final, a semifinal, a quarterfinal, and a round of 16. I just think Paolini is in a better space mentally.
That being said, Paolini winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Paolini winning @1.62 @WilliamHill
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
