The Asian swing continues on day three at the ATP Shanghai Masters with some of the sport’s biggest stars taking to the courts on the third day in China. As ever, we here at LWOT offer our predictions for every match on the slate, including Casper Ruud vs Zizou Bergs, Novak Djokovic vs Marin Cilic, and Ben Shelton vs David Goffin. But who will advance?
ATP Shanghai Day 3 Predictions
Flavio Cobolli vs Jaume Munar
Head-to-head: Fucscovics 2-0 Munar
Flavio Cobolli will be looking for a solid performance in Shanghai to boost his chances of breaking back into the top 20 by the end of the season. The Italian reached a career high #17 during the summer, but has fallen away since he retired in the US Open third round against compatriot Lorenzo Musetti.
Jaume Munar will have his own ambitions of returning to the top 40 by the end of the season and broke a three-match losing streak with a comeback win against Marton Fucsovics in the opening round.
Ordinarily, the Italian should be winning this, but Munar showed signs of the same sort of form that took him to the round of 16 at the US Open in his ATP Shanghai opener. If he can manage to replicate that, he has every chance of winning this first meeting against Cobolli.
Prediction: Munar in 3
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Tomas Machac vs Mattia Bellucci
Head-to-head: Belucci 1-0 Machac
Mattia Bellucci narrowly clinched the first set against Adam Walton in the opener before dominating the second to win 7-6 6-1. He will now face the Czech star Tomas Machac for the first time at the tour level, although he defeated him two years ago in the Cassis Challenger final.
Machac has suffered defeats in his last two matches and will be eager to shake off the disappointment of his unexpected loss to qualifier Sho Shimabukuro in Tokyo. The Czech player possesses the skillset required for this surface and will look to avenge that previous final defeat, but Bellucci will undoubtedly prove to be a tough opponent.
Prediction: Machac in 3
Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez
Head-to-head: Rune 3-2 Baez
Holger Rune will be looking to break free from what has been a strange run of quarterfinal defeats. The Dane has reached the last eight at three events since winning the title in Barcelona last April, but he has stumbled at this stage each time. Although he has faced Sebastian Baez five times, most of their previous matches have happened on Baez’s preferred clay courts, while their only hardcourt encounter saw Rune secure a straight-sets victory.
The Argentine staged a comeback to defeat home favourite Zhizhen Zhang in the first round, ending a three-match losing streak; however, Zhang was still getting back into form following a long absence. He won’t have that luxury against Rune, especially in these conditions.
Prediction: Rune in 2
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Taylor Fritz vs Fabian Marozsan
Head-to-head: Fritz 1-0 Marozsan
Taylor Fritz will look to go one better in Shanghai after narrowly missing out on victory in Tokyo, finishing as the runner-up to Carlos Alcaraz. The fifth seed has had a remarkable season and so will surely be disappointed by having only won two titles so far.
His Hungarian opponent, Fabian Marozsan, managed to overcome three-time major champion Stan Wawrinka (albeit the Swiss is nothing like the force he once was) in three sets in the opening round, continuing his near-perfect record in the opening rounds on the main tour.
Fritz currently leads their head-to-head matchup 1-0, having won in four sets during their meeting in Australia in 2024. His remarkable consistency on serve and from both sides make him a force to be reckoned, but with the sport in the midst of a combination of fatigue and injury epidemic and Fritz having a lot of miles in his legs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Marozsan spring an upset.
Prediction: Marozsan in 3
Main photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
