It’s time for the US Open third round and more betting opportunities. The match quality has been outstanding in Queens, and it is only getting better. Here are my best bets for the third round of play. Let me know in the comments how you feel about my picks. Disagree? Let me know, as well.
WTA U.S. Open
Noskova – Muchova: Time 17:00
H2H: 0-0
Karolina Muchova and Linda Noskova meet for the first time in Queens. Moskova is in her fourth US Open appearance, but she had never made it past the second round before making the third round this year. By contrast, Muchova has been in the semifinals in her last two appearances at the US Open and will be looking to continue her streak. Both Muchova and Noskova are 6-4 in their last ten matches, and both ladies are on a two-match win streak.
Best Bet to Make
Karolina Muchova is the favorite in this match, and I largely agree. In most cases, Muchova and Noskova are .4-.35 points separate, so it’s not like Muchova is a strong favorite. She is the favorite here because she’s more experienced and has a stronger record on a hardcourt. Noskova is a robust 17-12 on a hardcourt this year, and will likely push Muchova to her limit. I think Muchova will win this in three sets.
That being said, Muchova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Muchova winning @1.82 @1xBet
Haddad Maia – Sakkari: Time 17:00
H2H: 4-0
Beatriz Haddad Maia surprised me when she cruised past Viktorija Golubic with relative ease. Golubic won a total of five games that day, and Haddad Maia looked like she barely broke a sweat. As her reward, Haddad Maia has the privilege of taking on an opponent she has beaten four times out of four, two of which were on a hardcourt. Haddad Maia last toppled Sakkari in 2024 at WTA Madrid. Sakkari has made the semifinals of the US Open, but that was back in 2021, and she hasn’t gone past the second round since then.
Best Bet to Make
Despite having a perfect record against Sakkari, Haddad Maia enters the match as a half-point underdog, to my surprise. Sakkari is 11-14 on a hardcourt in 2025, and she’s also boasting a 22-24 overall record this year. I’m guessing if Haddad Maia weren’t 4-12 on a hardcourt, and 12-23 overall, she wouldn’t be the underdog. I bet against Haddad Maia last time, and it bit me. I’ll take Haddad Maia this time around since she’s 4-0 against Sakkari.
That being said, Haddad Maia winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Haddad Maia winning @2.26 @1xBet
Sabalenka – Fernandez: Time 17:00
H2H: 0-1
The last time Leylah Fernandez played against Aryna Sabalenka, it was in the semifinals of this very event in 2021. In a three-set war, Fernandez outlasted Sabalenka to reach the final. Fernandez would eventually lose to Emma Raducanu in the final, but she’s going to know that beating Sabalenka in Queens is within her abilities. Sabalenka won the entire competition last year, had a final in 2023, and semifinal appearances in 2021-2022. She will be coming straight at Fernandez this year.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Sabalenka as a 5.5-1 favorite, and I completely agree. She’s already won three tournaments this year and is the defending champion here. Sabalenka is 8-2 in her last ten matches, and most books see her winning this match in two sets. Fernandez does have a tournament win at the end of July, and that his her only title of the year. While Fernandez is going to be confident, I fully expect Sabalenka to prove a point in this match. She’s not just going to want her win back; she’s going to want to send a message.
That being said, Sabalenka winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sabalenka winning @1.65 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
