ATP US Open 1/64-Finals
Tiafoe – Nishioka: 25.08.2025 19:00 CEST
H2H: 3-3
Frances Tiafoe has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Cincinnati, where he retired mid-match against Rune in the 1/8-Finals. Last season in New York, Tiafoe lost against Fritz in the semifinals in five tight sets.
Yoshihito Nishioka has lost five straight matches. His last win was over a month ago in Washington. Last week in Winston-Salem, Nishioka lost against Carreno-Busta in the opening round in straight sets. He has never made it past the second round here.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tiafoe is the big favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Nishioka is in terrible form and was just recently demolished by Carreno-Busta. On the other hand, Tiafoe enjoys playing in New York and has already had his biggest results here. We expect him to be a better player tomorrow and win easily.
That being said, Tiafoe covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Frances Tiafoe -7.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Struff – McDonald: 25.08.2025 20:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Jan-Lennard Struff has won three of his last five matches. This week in New York, the German qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the final qualifying round, Struff won against Cazaux in straight sets. He trailed 0-3 in the opening set and saved two set points.
Mackenzie McDonald has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Winston-Salem, McDonald lost against Darderi in the second round in three tight sets. Last season in New York, the American lost against Sinner in the opening round in four sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. McDonald was more consistent this season and will have help from the crowd. We expect him to be a better player tomorrow and win.
That being said, McDonald winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Mackenzie McDonald winning @1.91 @bet365
Opelka – Alcaraz: 26.08.2025 02:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Reilly Opelka has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Cincinnati, where he lost to Comesana in three tight sets. Last season at the US Open, Opelka lost in the opening round against Musetti in four sets.
Carlos Alcaraz has won six straight matches. Last week in Cincinnati, Alcaraz won the Masters 1000 title. He was the champion here in 2022. Last season, Van de Zandschulp upset him in the second round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the favourite in this matchup, and we partially agree. However, Opelka has played several matches solidly for the past few weeks. If he serves well, we believe he will be able to keep this match tight. Alcaraz tends to start the tournament slowly, so there will be a chance for the big American to spice things up.
That being said, Opelka covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Reilly Opelka +5.5 games handicap @2.25 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
